Background

Tesla is working towards unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities, and may deliver the feature as early as 2025.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the specifications of the first Tesla vehicle model which features unsupervised FSD. Resolution will occur when the first Unsupervised FSD vehicle is delivered: meaning it is available to the public, and not merely running on a car owned by Tesla or Tesla staff.

Each option will resolve independently:

• "Be a Two Seater" resolves YES if the first Tesla model with unsupervised FSD is a two-seat vehicle, NO otherwise

• "Have a screen in the back row" resolves YES if the vehicle is a two row vehicle which includes a rear passenger display screen, NO otherwise

• "Run on a AI4/HW4 computer" resolves YES if the vehicle uses Tesla's Hardware 4 computing platform, NO otherwise

• "Run on a AI5 computer" resolves YES if the vehicle uses Tesla's (AI) Hardware 5 computing platform, NO otherwise

• "Have a front facing bumper camera" resolves YES if the vehicle includes a front facing camera mounted in or near the front bumper, NO otherwise

• "Have a steering wheel" resolves YES if the vehicle has a built in steering wheel or includes a steering wheel as the default option, NO otherwise.

Market deadline will be extended if Unsupervised FSD is not delivered in 2025.

• Update 2025-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification:

  • Resolution is based solely on the first delivered unsupervised FSD vehicle available to the public.

  • Each option (such as Run on AI5 computer or Run on AI4/HW4 computer) is determined by the specifications of that first vehicle only.

  • Even if subsequent vehicles or OTA updates introduce different hardware, only the features of the initial delivered vehicle are used to resolve the market.

• Update 2025-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator

  • The first unsupervised FSD vehicle must be one that is purchased and owned by a non‐Tesla employee (i.e. it cannot be owned by Tesla or its staff).

  • In the unlikely event that a simultaneous software update is deployed to multiple vehicles at once (meaning no single vehicle is clearly first), the market will resolve as N/A.

  • Note that while Tesla’s update rollout is not random and may favor certain locations or partners, only the specifications of the first qualifying vehicle will be used for market resolution.