Background
Tesla is working towards unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities, and may deliver the feature as early as 2025.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve based on the specifications of the first Tesla vehicle model which features unsupervised FSD. Resolution will occur when the first Unsupervised FSD vehicle is delivered: meaning it is available to the public, and not merely running on a car owned by Tesla or Tesla staff.
Each option will resolve independently:
"Be a Two Seater" resolves YES if the first Tesla model with unsupervised FSD is a two-seat vehicle, NO otherwise
"Have a screen in the back row" resolves YES if the vehicle is a two row vehicle which includes a rear passenger display screen, NO otherwise
"Run on a AI4/HW4 computer" resolves YES if the vehicle uses Tesla's Hardware 4 computing platform, NO otherwise
"Run on a AI5 computer" resolves YES if the vehicle uses Tesla's (AI) Hardware 5 computing platform, NO otherwise
"Have a front facing bumper camera" resolves YES if the vehicle includes a front facing camera mounted in or near the front bumper, NO otherwise
"Have a steering wheel" resolves YES if the vehicle has a built in steering wheel or includes a steering wheel as the default option, NO otherwise.
Market deadline will be extended if Unsupervised FSD is not delivered in 2025.
Update 2025-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification:
Resolution is based solely on the first delivered unsupervised FSD vehicle available to the public.
Each option (such as Run on AI5 computer or Run on AI4/HW4 computer) is determined by the specifications of that first vehicle only.
Even if subsequent vehicles or OTA updates introduce different hardware, only the features of the initial delivered vehicle are used to resolve the market.
Update 2025-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
The first unsupervised FSD vehicle must be one that is purchased and owned by a non‐Tesla employee (i.e. it cannot be owned by Tesla or its staff).
In the unlikely event that a simultaneous software update is deployed to multiple vehicles at once (meaning no single vehicle is clearly first), the market will resolve as N/A.
Note that while Tesla’s update rollout is not random and may favor certain locations or partners, only the specifications of the first qualifying vehicle will be used for market resolution.
1,000Suppose it becomes available to already publicly owned cars that have HW3 or HW4 or HW5 via OTA software update. OTA update seems likely to me. It could easily be made available to HW4 vehicles first which would make things easier, but what if multiple different HW are possible at the first time it is possible?
Per rules, it appears it may well be first car delivered. If the cars being delivered only have HW5 does that mean the
'Run on a AI4/HW4 computer' option resolves no despite these likely being first/in majority of those first able to use it?
That seems a bit weird?
If multiple models/configurations can use it, it seems possible we will not find out which car was delivered first (maybe there will be info on car first produced but not necessarily delivered first). If it is possible, do questions resolve
A) Yes, or
perhaps B) to a % according to proportion of vehicles being sold that can have unsupervised FSD that have the relevant feature or
C) to a % according to proportion of vehicles already on the road that can have unsupervised FSD that have the relevant feature or
D) something else?
@Shihan ?
@ChristopherRandles This market is specifically about the first one. And indeed if HW5 is out, but isn't the first model to run unsupervised, then it would not be counted as running on HW5/AI5.
I don't expect any uncertainty about which model is the is the first to run it out in the wild, as reviewers and media testers are often the first granted access to new software after tesla staff themselves.
@Shihan If it is made available to reviewers in advance, I would have assumed that those do not count as "first delivered unsupervised FSD vehicle available to the public". Are you instead saying it is the first non Tesla staff to own vehicle and be able to try it out on that owned vehicle (even if it a special case of a reviewer when not yet available to general public)?
Also if such reviewer is given a car owned by Tesla to do the testing, it would seem that would not count. We may or may not get adequate details of who owns such review test vehicles?
If it is the first at the time any Tom Dick or Harriette can be a car owner that can run Tesla's unsupervised FSD, then
You may well be right that they release It to run on just one model first and we will know what that model is. I was just trying to cover what happens if it is released for more than one model type at the time it first becomes available to the public. Maybe that is unlikely enough that I shouldn't worry about it?
I am also thinking that if use is permitted only in a restricted area at first, then this does not matter. If the general public can own a vehicle and try it out on that vehicle even if they have to travel a long way to do so, that is OK?
@ChristopherRandles Well, it's not random how Tesla chooses it's update recipients. I don't know the secret sauce of their update priorities, but if past performance is any indicator it'll go to those near Tesla offices and relationships with past youtube testers, etc.
The car must not be owned by Tesla, it has to be purchased and owned by someone who doesn't work for Tesla. But even when it FSD 13 was out, it was still months before my HW4 Model 3 got it. So it's not a req that any Tom Dick or Harriette would have access just by buying a new car.
I don't think there's ever been a Tesla "simultaneous" software release, according to https://www.notateslaapp.com/fsd-beta/. But if somehow there a software update that reasonably fit the definition of a simultaneous release for multiple vehicles, then the question would resolve N/A.
Re: restricted areas, I assume when FSD unsupervised is released it will be heavily geofenced.