
Obamas get divorced or separated by mid 2030
30
1kṀ56292030
15%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Announced and confirmed by them, or credible clear reports that they don't live together and/ or are separated.
Update 2025-02-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Criteria clarification:
Death does not count: Only a deliberate decay of the relationship (through divorce or separation) meets the resolution criteria.
Focus on relationship decay: The market outcome is based solely on whether the relationship falls apart, not on events such as a death.
Update 2025-07-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market's deadline of 'mid 2030' is defined as the end of day on June 30, 2030, California time.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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