@footgun So you're giving a 23% chance that they will be divorced by 2030? As a base rate

@footgun What about celebrity marriages, where the family's against it? Those seem to both be heavy pressure against.

According to https://marriagefoundation.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/pdf-03.pdf, celebrity divorce rate in first 14 year of marriage is 50%.

I built a model using the annual rate in the report. Should be around 25%?