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Daniel Penny serves no time or Trump pardons him by mid 2026
13
Ṁ1kṀ5.8k
resolved Dec 10
Resolved
YES

Either not guilty and no further time needed to be served, and released, OR, by mid 2026, Trump has pardoned him. If he passes away in Jail, NO. If he serves short time and then gets out without a pardon, then NO.

Basically two branches of YES: he's not convicted, or Trump takes the opportunity to pardon him. If Trump has the opportunity but doesn't do it by the deadline, then NO

Trump refers to his admin, VP etc in the succession if necessary

Market context
Crime
Daniel Penny trial
Law and Crime
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bought Ṁ1,000 YES

Trump can't pardon him, but it's YES since Penny beat the case.

This is looking good to yes

@Ernie he could commit another crime before 2026

@squirrelfish https://manifold.markets/Ernie/if-a-cop-advises-you-to-shelter-fro-22c1837bff1e

I think it's fair to interpret the scope of this to be the accusations against him as a result of the subway incident

@Ernie You should've written the question better.

Trump can’t pardon him for a state crime unless the Supreme Court really wants to go out on a limb to let him or he becomes governor of New York somehow. I assume a pardon from Kathy Hotchul is NO?

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