Imagine this:
You are accused of a crime
Someone makes a market about it called "X is in prison by EOY"
You are found not guilty and the police apologize and give you a settlement since the whole thing was made up. It turns out a corrupt cop who now is dead had tried to set you up. You become close friends with all the police and justice system workers in town.
A huge thunderstorm approaches your small town
You are driving and a cop pulls you over
And he says hey I'm so glad I found you! You have to get off the road, it's dangerous! Go to the police station and get your daughter who is sheltering in the jail cell. Take her to the judge and then he will tell you what to do. I know you guys have medical conditions and we want to be sure to keep you safe!
You go and find her in the jail cell. The rain is coming down hard now and the sky is black and menacing.
You find the judge and he along with twelve fellow citizens debate (they were the jury for a trial that day) on where you would be safest.
Finally they decide you should go to the prison to wait it out. The judge concurs and you are sent there in a police van which is strong enough to resist the winds
You arrive and spend a week in prison with your fellow townsfolk watching extreme weather outside and grateful to be in a safe strong building.
Now some may say "you were apprehended and then agreed to turn yourself in at the police station, spent time in jail, a jury decided to send you to prison, a judge agreed, you were taken to prison in a corrections system vehicle, and spend time there. Now, is it reasonable to judge the claim 'you were sent to prison' as YES"?
That claim was written in response to an accusation you had committed a crime, later completely debunked.
But what do YOU think. Is it fair to say YES to the original question?
1,000@epiphanie_gedeon I think this is clearly NO with no need to run a poll.
Nobody would ever think anyone cares about if a random unknown guy visits a prison to get shelter from a storm (unless they are climatologists or similar)
The public would care about if a guy accused of a specific crime they just saw on TV is convicted and goes there, though.
Judging on the former thing is obtuse when people clearly care about the latter.
@Ernie Yeah, I think I agree. This is what I like about market runners deciding their own resolutions, actually
@shankypanky A general comment on the theory of market resolution on manifold. Some strict literalists appear to believe the answer is YES in analogous situations, yet I doubt they would actually answer YES. i.e. ignoring the context a claim was made in, they later on argue that it should be resolve on the current-day, abstract, literal meaning of the words, and not based on the obvious contemporaneous meaning of the claim at the time.
e.g. a market about whether SBF's parents will "be in prison by 2026" resolving YES as soon as they go visit SBF there. That would be absurd since it's obvious the original claim means that they will be arrested, tried, and convicted by that point. Simply being inside a physical prison is not what the claim nor the original bettors meant and it doesn't help our goals on this site to be so literalist.
@Ernie Thank you. That's how I felt and interpreted it but I also prefer to clarify to ensure no mixed understanding or intentions. (Or maybe I'm just inherently skeptical and on the lookout for trick questions? 😅)
Guys just got a call from NASA. Turns out the entire solar system is considered a prison under galactic law. All claims about "X is in prison" immediately resolve YES.
Unfortunately the galactic civilization just so happens to be called the "Ded" empire and traditionally calls their citizens "dead"; as birthright citizens, we are all "Dead" now. So all death claims resolve YES immediately, retroactive to the moment of an individuals birth. Oh well no way to help this.
Some years later our hero becomes a priest and is assigned to the prison.
The market owner remembers his market and calls our hero's best friend. "Where is X?
"At the prison of course"
Aha I knew it! Resolves YES
"Yes, he's there serving the inmate with sacraments and the gospel as he has done for many years"
Is this a good resolution?
No voters, I may have missed some details on the story of X's long arduous journey to prison.
For example in elementary school his teacher said "I just know you'll end up in that prison someday; I almost wish I could send you there now", looking up towards the sun-lit distant high walls on the hill. She was referring to the state prison dinosaur museum dig site, the most esteemed paleontology center in the world, which the diligence of her best student was sure to grant him access to.