A Tesla is "drafted" to self-drive to assist in an emergency without owner consent by end 2026
A Tesla is "drafted" to self-drive to assist in an emergency without owner consent by end 2026
4
188Ṁ31
2027
38%
chance

In the US

There will be a story that someone (government or someone in Tesla) had a self-driving car awake and drive somewhere with no human present, for the purpose of assistance in some emergency.

Counts:

  • A older man didn't answer his daughters calls for three days. She persuaded Tesla to enable his Tesla video and drive the car around his farm looking for him, relaying video

  • A criminal is driving a Tesla he owns recklessly and claims to have a bomb. The police receive help from Tesla to turn the car away from a school and to an isolated field to protect the public. The man is locked in his own car and cannot control it manually.

  • Would also count if they just remote disable it at the request of law enforcement while he was driving.

  • Police convince Tesla to waken and drive a bunch of cars to smash through a wall which is preventing them from saving some people. Owners were not informed beforehand.

Does not count

  • Disabling a car while no one is driving for nonpayment or other reason. This isn't an emergency situation so doesn't count.

Criteria:

  • It must be self-driven to do something in an emergency. Either onboard self-driving or remotely.

  • It cannot be normal operation such as a car automatically becoming self-driving if it detects owner is drunk or batter is super low or on fire

  • This state must be remotely imposed

  • It can be with or without owner consent or knowledge

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy