[1000M subsidy] What will have been the most important thing to happen in 2024?

Plus

Ṁ2400

Jan 10

31%

1.6%

Aliens

Israel-Hamas Conflict

0.7%

New weight loss drugs (Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro) with promise to cure to obesity

0.3%

Trump Indictments

0.3%

Strikes

20%

US Presidential Election

43%

Other

This is my personal version of the cool 2023 version of this market: /PS/what-will-have-been-the-most-import

Looking back at 2024, what will I judge to have been the most important thing to have taken place? It can be social, technological, political or from any other area; an event or a development; the only requirement is that 2024 must have been an important year for it. Feel welcome to provide arguments (or counter-arguments) in the comments.

Usually, I try to make the resolution criteria for my markets as objective and well-defined as possible. Not this one, though; I'll resolve it 10 days into the new year according to my own judgment (although the state of the market will be one factor in my decision). I might split the answer according to the probabilities I see, although I'll probably try to stick to a few answers which convince me the most.

If you want to influence my thinking (and thus the resolution), please do explain your proposal/vote in the comments.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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can you add THE PIVOT as an answer? I will bet it up

Hey, I mostly just duplicated another market early cause I wanted to start my betting. But I'm not maintaining this too actively, so feel free to further duplicate/copy/etc so that the best version of a question like this gets traffic

@Ernie This year, I'm running a version which resolves to a poll:

😁
Although I have to note quite a few people were unhappy with my resolution of last year's market...

I propose adding the US presidential election, though maybe it's mainly impactful for 2025+

I think doing these markets about years far in the future is so fun. Particularly if we, say, also promised to close it on Jan 1 of the target year. That way you have to lock in your guesses before and can only watch. (I'm not doing that here; it'll be open til the new year and beyond)

@Ernie do you have a strong prior of AI being the most important thing in any given year? Would you say it was the most important thing last year?

@Joshua hmm I think this year a ton of people's minds were changed by AI. And a ton of money and effort shifted that way. I wouldn't say it had been the most important thing in many previous years

Just checking, is it intentional that this one isn't free response like the market you duplicated? It looks like only you can add answers.

@Joshua ah I see. I had wanted to manage their addition to avoid overlaps or confusing answers.

@Ernie cool market, this one would probably be higher quality if the free-response already exists because you can filter for the best predictions. Gonna subsidize and boost it a bit

@Ernie Gotcha! Managing the addition is reasonable. I was going to try to add the other top answers from the original market:

So weight loss, trump indictments, and strikes. Do those all seem like reasonable candidates to you?

@Joshua yep, thanks!

OH wait i have made the classic mistake of misreading the year and thinking this was for 2023 😂

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