This is my personal version of the cool 2023 version of this market: /PS/what-will-have-been-the-most-import
Looking back at 2024, what will I judge to have been the most important thing to have taken place? It can be social, technological, political or from any other area; an event or a development; the only requirement is that 2024 must have been an important year for it. Feel welcome to provide arguments (or counter-arguments) in the comments.
Usually, I try to make the resolution criteria for my markets as objective and well-defined as possible. Not this one, though; I'll resolve it 10 days into the new year according to my own judgment (although the state of the market will be one factor in my decision). I might split the answer according to the probabilities I see, although I'll probably try to stick to a few answers which convince me the most.
If you want to influence my thinking (and thus the resolution), please do explain your proposal/vote in the comments.
Related questions
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Although I have to note quite a few people were unhappy with my resolution of last year's market...
@Ernie do you have a strong prior of AI being the most important thing in any given year? Would you say it was the most important thing last year?
@Joshua hmm I think this year a ton of people's minds were changed by AI. And a ton of money and effort shifted that way. I wouldn't say it had been the most important thing in many previous years
@Ernie cool market, this one would probably be higher quality if the free-response already exists because you can filter for the best predictions. Gonna subsidize and boost it a bit
@Ernie Gotcha! Managing the addition is reasonable. I was going to try to add the other top answers from the original market:
So weight loss, trump indictments, and strikes. Do those all seem like reasonable candidates to you?