Will there be a significant surprise in 2024 that will shape the year?
US Politics•Politics•2024 US Presidential Election•World•2024
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In an election year? Probably

predicts YES

I would say 2020 and 2022 would be YES, but 2019, 2021 and 2023 would be NO from a worldwide perspective. 2001 wiould be YES. There will always be some room for discussion.

What would count? I'd say 2020 and 2022 would be YES (COVID and Ukraine respectively) and 2019, 2021 and 2023 would be NO — or would 2023 be YES because Gaza?

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