Looking back at 2023, what will I judge to have been the most important thing to have taken place? It can be social, technological, political or from any other area; an event or a development; the only requirement is that 2023 must have been an important year for it. Feel welcome to provide arguments (or counter-arguments) in the comments.
Usually, I try to make the resolution criteria for my markets as objective and well-defined as possible. Not this one, though; I'll resolve it 10 days into the new year according to my own judgment (although the state of the market will be one factor in my decision). I might split the answer according to the probabilities I see, although I'll probably try to stick to a few answers which convince me the most.
UPD. If you want to influence my thinking (and thus the resolution), please do explain your proposal/vote in the comments.
Related questions
Can we get "effective cancer cure" on the list? I'm not 100% sure I buy the hype around it, but if it works it'd definitely be the most important thing to happen this year, don't you think?
@AndrewHartman You can add an answer yourself anytime. If it works, and if 2023 is a significant year for it, it'd certainly be up there as one of the most promising things
@PS Aha, I missed this was a free response, thanks. I dunno if I want to commit the mana to add an answer, though - I rarely risk that much in markets with a subjective resolution.
The hype around AI reminds me of the hype around the Segway scooter! No…it will have marginal applications to a few people.
@KevinLobLaw if my robo kid made that artwork out of Los Angeles, I'd wish they'd find a more productive calling.
"Looking back at 2023 many years from now, what will we judge to have been the most important thing to have taken place?" As an introduction, this seems to conflict with "I'll resolve it 10 days into the new year according to my own judgment".
@kenakofer Sorry, might not have been the best wording. What I want to convey is that in early 2024, I'll make a judgment as to what will be considered, say, in 2040, to have been the most important thing to happen in 2023 - a bit convoluted, I know. If you have a proposal for how to put it better, please tell!
2023 will be known as the year obesity was cured. If it doesn't feel like that to you now it's only because the pricing strategy for the medicines is so aggressive, but as patents expire and competing drugs bring prices down, literally everyone in America will know somebody on the drugs. Weight loss surgery is already obsolete. They have changed how doctors think about obesity. Obesity rates will plummet. Diabetes rates will fall. People will live longer, healthier lives. These medicines are incredible.
@WrongoPhD I don’t disagree that, IF EFFECTIVE, these treatments are huge. I just don’t know they’ll stack up against gestures wildly at everything in AI in terms of impact.
@JohnSmithb9be The progress in AI has been staggering, even for a complete layperson like me. However, I'm not sure how large a specific role 2023 played/plays in the development.
@PS I'm also an outsider to AI, but if seems to me that AI existed before 2023. What is unique about this moment is that AI has now progressed to the point where we can easily imagine it changing everything even though it hasn't actually done so yet. I think when we look back from the future we are not going to remember 2023 is the pivotal year for it. Rather, we will remember whatever year it is that the promise we are now seeing in AI actually comes to fruition.
