Will Superalignment succeed?
Will I be convinced the spirit of Moore's Law is dead as of January 1, 2024?
Will Conjecture produce work that they believe constitutes meaningful progress towards alignment by the end of 2023?
Will there exist a compelling demonstration of deceptive alignment by 2026?
Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Will at least 2 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026?
Will @MartinRandall pass the Turing test by the end of October, 2023?
Will I find autism (or rather, allism) to be an ideology during 2023?
Will Conjecture produce work that I believe constitutes meaningful progress towards alignment by the end of 2023?
Will at least one of the remaining Millenium Problems be solved before 2030?
Will 80,000 Hours be mentioned in Going Infinite by Michael Lewis?
Will the Future of Humanity Institute exist in 2030?
What proportion of John von Neumann clones aged 20 or older will identify as LGBTQ+?
Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030?
Will I think that alignment is no longer "preparadigmatic" by the start of 2026?
Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
Will there be a consensus amongst scholars and historians as to who orchestrated JFK's assassination by 2030?
Will I post a follow up article to the “Does Georgism Work?” series in 2023?