[1000M subsidy] What will have been the most important thing to happen in 2023?
276
8.2kṀ30k
resolved Jan 11
50%71%
AI
50%11%
New weight loss drugs (Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro) with promise to cure to obesity
0.1%
Trump Indictments
0.1%
Wagner Group-Russia Conflict
0.1%
Strikes
0.0%
Covid Resurges
0.2%
Aliens
0.0%
Union Strikes
0.1%
Political official dies
0.1%
New war starts
0.0%
The Barbie Movie
0.1%
S&P grow 25%
0.1%
Effective Cancer Cure
5%
Israel Palestine conflict
0.1%
Finland and Sweden join NATO
1.4%
BRICS expansion
5%
Warmest year on record
0.1%
Taylor Swift's Eras Tour
0.1%
Hottest year on record. [EDIT: There is already a "warmest" option]
0.1%
New war in Africa/Asia

Looking back at 2023, what will I judge to have been the most important thing to have taken place? It can be social, technological, political or from any other area; an event or a development; the only requirement is that 2023 must have been an important year for it. Feel welcome to provide arguments (or counter-arguments) in the comments.

Usually, I try to make the resolution criteria for my markets as objective and well-defined as possible. Not this one, though; I'll resolve it 10 days into the new year according to my own judgment (although the state of the market will be one factor in my decision). I might split the answer according to the probabilities I see, although I'll probably try to stick to a few answers which convince me the most.

UPD. If you want to influence my thinking (and thus the resolution), please do explain your proposal/vote in the comments.

UPD2. Since a couple of people misread the title: Even though it hasn't closed yet, this market is about 2023, not 2024.

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