[1000M subsidy] What will have been the most important thing to happen in 2023?
59
closes Jan 10
AI
57%
Other
10%
New weight loss drugs (Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro) with promise to cure to obesity
9%
Political official dies
8%
Strikes
4%
Trump Indictments
3%
Wagner Group-Russia Conflict
3%
Effective Cancer Cure
2%
S&P grow 25%
1.7%
New war starts
0.8%
Covid Resurges
0.8%
Union Strikes
0.8%
The Barbie Movie
0.4%
Aliens
0.3%

Looking back at 2023, what will I judge to have been the most important thing to have taken place? It can be social, technological, political or from any other area; an event or a development; the only requirement is that 2023 must have been an important year for it. Feel welcome to provide arguments (or counter-arguments) in the comments.

Usually, I try to make the resolution criteria for my markets as objective and well-defined as possible. Not this one, though; I'll resolve it 10 days into the new year according to my own judgment (although the state of the market will be one factor in my decision). I might split the answer according to the probabilities I see, although I'll probably try to stick to a few answers which convince me the most.

UPD. If you want to influence my thinking (and thus the resolution), please do explain your proposal/vote in the comments.

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Sort by:
AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartman

Can we get "effective cancer cure" on the list? I'm not 100% sure I buy the hype around it, but if it works it'd definitely be the most important thing to happen this year, don't you think?

2 replies
PS avatar
PS

@AndrewHartman You can add an answer yourself anytime. If it works, and if 2023 is a significant year for it, it'd certainly be up there as one of the most promising things

AndrewHartman avatar
Andrew Hartman

@PS Aha, I missed this was a free response, thanks. I dunno if I want to commit the mana to add an answer, though - I rarely risk that much in markets with a subjective resolution.

KevinLobLaw avatar
Kevin Blawbought Ṁ10 of New weight loss drug... YES

The hype around AI reminds me of the hype around the Segway scooter! No…it will have marginal applications to a few people.

KevinLobLaw avatar
Kevin Blaw

If this resolves AI, we riot.

7 replies
PS avatar
PS

@KevinLobLaw Are you an AI, then?

KevinLobLaw avatar
Kevin Blaw

@PS What would an AI riot look like?

PS avatar
PS
KevinLobLaw avatar
Kevin Blaw

@PS If my kid made that artwork, I couldn't even pretend to like it.

PS avatar
PS
kenakofer avatar
kenakoferbought Ṁ10 of AI YES

@KevinLobLaw if my robo kid made that artwork out of Los Angeles, I'd wish they'd find a more productive calling.

PS avatar
PS

@kenakofer Are you calling James Cameron an unproductive robo kid?

kenakofer avatar
kenakoferbought Ṁ10 of Strikes NO

"Looking back at 2023 many years from now, what will we judge to have been the most important thing to have taken place?" As an introduction, this seems to conflict with "I'll resolve it 10 days into the new year according to my own judgment".

3 replies
PS avatar
PS

@kenakofer Sorry, might not have been the best wording. What I want to convey is that in early 2024, I'll make a judgment as to what will be considered, say, in 2040, to have been the most important thing to happen in 2023 - a bit convoluted, I know. If you have a proposal for how to put it better, please tell!

kenakofer avatar
kenakofer

@PS The clearest improvement I see is to just remove the first sentence. You do a good job of adding context and resolution details everywhere else.

PS avatar
PS

@kenakofer Thanks, that makes sense. Better now?

fb68 avatar
Юрий Бурак

AI is universal tool. Surely it would help with your chemistry and trumps

WrongoPhD avatar
Professor Wrongobought Ṁ10 of Other YES

2023 will be known as the year obesity was cured. If it doesn't feel like that to you now it's only because the pricing strategy for the medicines is so aggressive, but as patents expire and competing drugs bring prices down, literally everyone in America will know somebody on the drugs. Weight loss surgery is already obsolete. They have changed how doctors think about obesity. Obesity rates will plummet. Diabetes rates will fall. People will live longer, healthier lives. These medicines are incredible.

4 replies
PS avatar
PS

@WrongoPhD Don't you want to pose this as a separate answer?

JohnSmithb9be avatar
John Smithbought Ṁ50 of Trump Indictments NO

@WrongoPhD I don’t disagree that, IF EFFECTIVE, these treatments are huge. I just don’t know they’ll stack up against gestures wildly at everything in AI in terms of impact.

PS avatar
PS

@JohnSmithb9be The progress in AI has been staggering, even for a complete layperson like me. However, I'm not sure how large a specific role 2023 played/plays in the development.

WrongoPhD avatar
Professor Wrongo

@PS I'm also an outsider to AI, but if seems to me that AI existed before 2023. What is unique about this moment is that AI has now progressed to the point where we can easily imagine it changing everything even though it hasn't actually done so yet. I think when we look back from the future we are not going to remember 2023 is the pivotal year for it. Rather, we will remember whatever year it is that the promise we are now seeing in AI actually comes to fruition.