Given many timelines place AGI somewhere before 2028 (the Metaculus mode is at 2026), the 2024 cycle might be the last chance to elect a president who can do something to stop or postpone it.

It also looks like a surprisingly fertile election for a third-party run:

RFK Jr. Beating Biden and Trump Among Young Voters in Key States: Poll

Robert Kennedy Jr. polled ahead of Biden and Trump among swing-state voters under the age of 45 in a new Sienna College poll.

Will someone actually try?

Resolution Criteria:

• This market resolves positively if a recognized AI X-Risk organization known for its commitment to mitigating the existential threats of artificial intelligence endorses a third-party presidential run, or a recognized AI X-Risk activist announces their intent to run for office.

  • I'm thinking "must have a Wikipedia page that links to or is linked from the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk_from_artificial_general_intelligence page" but I'm open to other suggestions.
    

• The declaration must be official, public, and specifically aim at influencing AI policy

• The declaration must occur before the Texas ballot application deadline on May 13, 2024. (Source: Ballotpedia)