The number of submissions at top AI conferences like AAAI, NeurIPS, ICLR, ICML, ACL, EMNLP, ICCV and CVPR have been increasing pretty much monotonically since at least 2014. This market asks how long this trend will continue.

(plotting code adapted from https://github.com/lixin4ever/Conference-Acceptance-Rate)

When will be the first year that the average number of long paper, main conference submissions at AAAI, NeurIPS, ICLR, ICML, ACL, EMNLP, ICCV and CVPR actually declines relative to the previous year. To be clear, I mean the number of submissions, and not the number of acceptances.

This market fully resolves when this happens, or when publication statistics for all of these (extant) conferences for the year 2034 have come out.