Will Korean president Yoon Suk Yeol be impeached before January 3rd 2025?
Basic
17
𝕊210
Jan 3
48%
chance

Criteria for a “Yes” Resolution:

Completed Impeachment Process: President Yoon Suk Yeol has been impeached as defined in point 1 above, with both the National Assembly’s passage of the impeachment motion and the Constitutional Court’s confirmation occurring before 11:59 PM Korean Standard Time (KST) on January 2nd, 2025.

Resignation After Impeachment Motion: President Yoon Suk Yeol resigns from office after the National Assembly passes an impeachment motion against him but before the Constitutional Court reaches a decision, and this resignation occurs before the deadline.

Criteria for a “No” Resolution:

No Impeachment Motion Passed: The National Assembly does not pass an impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk Yeol before the deadline.

Impeachment Motion Not Confirmed or No Resignation: An impeachment motion is passed by the National Assembly but is not confirmed by the Constitutional Court before the deadline, and President Yoon Suk Yeol does not resign after the motion is passed.

Resignation Without Impeachment Motion: President Yoon Suk Yeol resigns from office before any impeachment motion is passed by the National Assembly.

Removal by Other Means: President Yoon Suk Yeol leaves office due to death, incapacitation, or any method other than the impeachment process defined above.

Additional Clarifications:

Time Zone: All times and dates refer to Korean Standard Time (KST, UTC+9).

Sequence of Events: For a “Yes” resolution under point 2, the resignation must occur after the impeachment motion has been officially passed by the National Assembly.

Legal Challenges: Any legal proceedings or appeals related to the impeachment that are unresolved by the deadline will not affect the market’s resolution.

Extensions and Delays: Any extensions, delays, or procedural changes in the impeachment process after the deadline will not be considered.

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(South Korean here) It seems to me while he will be impeached and impeachment will pass, there won't be enough time to confirm.

@thomas_baes odd this dropped so much given the news. What am I missing?

@AlexanderTheGreater He may resign before impeachment. He's extremely unpopular, failed a coup, and his own party members voted to end martial law.

bought Ṁ100 NO

I took a completely uninformed "Nothing ever happens" bet

Added criteria and sweepified!

@SirSalty In my uninformed opinion, this looks like very clear criteria. Thanks!

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