Ellie High's calibration
Grade: D, Score: -9.44
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Ellie High bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
70%
80%
- Will there be an serious coup attempt in Russia aganist Putin (successful or unsuccessful) by the end of 2023NOṀ500
- Will Blazing Darkness go on testosterone by the end of 2022?YESṀ20
- D̟͙̖̜̟̣ͅͅo͖̝̻̟̲̘̺̼̥̠̥͈͓̮ẹ͕͙͉̩̫͖̼͍̱̗͇s͓͉̖̻̭ ̬͍̹͙͇͈ͅt̬͔͎͚̗̯ͅh͖̭̟̻̮̩̳̗̯i̥̼̦̪̱͇͔̣͓̥̖̻̱̹̲͓̺s̭̤̪̙ ̦̩̻̫̗̰̬̘̺͎̯̹̳̙ͅt̗̼̬͔e̮̙͙͇͇͙̞̥̣x͇̖̦̭͉̜̭̳t̼̪̝͚̦̻̩͓ ̟̦̜̹͓͍͇̗̫͔͖g͎̟͈̺̼̘̮̟̳̤̯̤o̩̞͉̘̞̞͓ ͚̝̞̣̗̱̼̻̥̱̠̮͚͕̩̱͇p̺͖̬͉̯̠͙͉̝̪̬͈̘̫͕ͅͅa͙͍̟̬̰̬̙̯̫͔̪̖̤ͅs͖̙͕͔̬͈̞͖͔t̻͖͖̱̥͕͍͎̠̩̜͎̤̻̞ͅͅ ̝̥̩̺̙̰̫̪ͅi͕̥̮̘ͅt̗̝̩͕̘̥̼̳s͕͙̲̠̺̥̪̠̰̞̝͓̟̮ ̖̥̱̭͍͖̬̝͓b͖̦̞̱͍̝͉̜̦̙͚̳̱͎̩̜͙o̬̥̭̙̳͍̯̘̦̱͓̜͚̣͉̝̜͖̹u̖̯͇̮̳̭̹̞ͅn͖̮͍̰̼̲d̬̬͎̮͍̜̯ͅa̹͖̘͖͍͔r͍͓̳̠͍̹̞̝̦̝̮̰͓̼͎̝̖̻i̬͖͇͚̝̖̼͈̹̯̘ͅḙ͈̘̮̜̣̖̫̻̮͇̹̦̠̩̟̣s̠̻̥̥͇?̣̝͎̹̭͈̦̜̯̪ͅYESṀ10
90%
95%