Will Russia be suspended from SWIFT by March 15, 2022?

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resolved Mar 16

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This will resolve yes if Russia is suspended for any period before the end of day (EST) on March 15. Feb 26, 3:17pm: A situation in which only SOME Russian banks and not the entirety of the Russian state entity financial system (government/central Bank, etc) are suspended would count as NO. If someone knows more about how a SWIFT suspension would work I'd love to learn but I'll try to keep this a clear "Russia" rather than "some Russian banks" forecast. Feb 28, 10:30am: Expanding on the previous comment, this will resolve NO if the SWIFT suspension is partial and still allows energy payments.

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I think with the way that Ryan has explained his resolution criteria, I would be very surprised to see all of Russia get put under SWIFT sanctions, and so expect this to resolve NO at a much higher chance than 56%. The nations that are placing SWIFT sanctions have essentially lined out their plans already, and there is at least one Russian bank that will not feel the full brunt of them.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1497722169756987393 how will this resolve if the swift suspension still allows energy payments? (>60% of Russian exports)

https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1497705461126074371 > Russia’s access to SWIFT is no longer seen as untouchable I don't know how to quantify "no longer seen as untouchable", but 58% by march 15 seems slightly high

@Natália Mendonça from the description I think not.

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1497703114744414210 > "selected" Russian banks will be disconnected from the SWIFT banking system. The statement doesn't indicate names of banks, or whether this will stop oil and gas payments (my guess is payments will continue) > The German government says that the ban only affects the Russian banks that were **already sanctioned**