Will Russia be suspended from SWIFT by March 15, 2022?
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100Ṁ20kresolved Mar 16
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This will resolve yes if Russia is suspended for any period before the end of day (EST) on March 15.
Feb 26, 3:17pm: A situation in which only SOME Russian banks and not the entirety of the Russian state entity financial system (government/central Bank, etc) are suspended would count as NO. If someone knows more about how a SWIFT suspension would work I'd love to learn but I'll try to keep this a clear "Russia" rather than "some Russian banks" forecast.
Feb 28, 10:30am: Expanding on the previous comment, this will resolve NO if the SWIFT suspension is partial and still allows energy payments.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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