Will Russia be suspended from SWIFT by March 15, 2022?
77
52
Ṁ20Kresolved Mar 16
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
This will resolve yes if Russia is suspended for any period before the end of day (EST) on March 15.
Feb 26, 3:17pm: A situation in which only SOME Russian banks and not the entirety of the Russian state entity financial system (government/central Bank, etc) are suspended would count as NO. If someone knows more about how a SWIFT suspension would work I'd love to learn but I'll try to keep this a clear "Russia" rather than "some Russian banks" forecast.
Feb 28, 10:30am: Expanding on the previous comment, this will resolve NO if the SWIFT suspension is partial and still allows energy payments.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ172 | |
2 | Ṁ166 | |
3 | Ṁ161 | |
4 | Ṁ64 | |
5 | Ṁ58 |
Sort by:
I think with the way that Ryan has explained his resolution criteria, I would be very surprised to see all of Russia get put under SWIFT sanctions, and so expect this to resolve NO at a much higher chance than 56%. The nations that are placing SWIFT sanctions have essentially lined out their plans already, and there is at least one Russian bank that will not feel the full brunt of them.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1497722169756987393 how will this resolve if the swift suspension still allows energy payments? (>60% of Russian exports)
https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1497705461126074371
> Russia’s access to SWIFT is no longer seen as untouchable
I don't know how to quantify "no longer seen as untouchable", but 58% by march 15 seems slightly high
https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1497703114744414210
> "selected" Russian banks will be disconnected from the SWIFT banking system. The statement doesn't indicate names of banks, or whether this will stop oil and gas payments (my guess is payments will continue)
> The German government says that the ban only affects the Russian banks that were **already sanctioned**
Related questions
Will the BRICS countries announce an alternative to SWIFT at their summit in October 2024?
20% chance
Will Russia ban usage of YouTube in 2024?
20% chance
Will Russia stop or suspend issuing passports in consulates in 2024?
13% chance
Will the entire country of Russia be disconnected from the rest of the internet for at least one hour during 2024?
18% chance
Will the Sberbank of Russia collapse before EOY 2030?
16% chance
Will Russian Athletes be banned from the 2024 Olympics?
2% chance
Will Russia be broken up by the end of 2024?
3% chance
Will Russian athletes be barred from competing at the 2024 Olympics?
2% chance
Will Russia introduce new significant limitations on citizens leaving the country in 2024?
5% chance