[2024 Program] Tadej Pogacar - UCI Road Cycling
Nov 2
San Sebastian
Vuelta a Espana
Bretagne Classic
Renewi Tour
GP Quebec
Il Lombardia
World Championships - RR
Olympic Games - RR
Olympic Games - ITT
Grand Prix Cycliste de Québec
Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal

Each listed race that Tadej Pogacar starts in the 2024 season resolves Yes.

Each race that he does not start resolves No.

For stage races, only the first stage matters.

If the listed race does not happen, that answer resolves N/A because I want you to predict if he starts, not if the race goes under.

I've listed a WT-centric list of races that he has either started at in the past or seems to have some chance of starting at some point in his career. We can add more, but I'm not that interested in .1 or .Pro races -- his season should focus on a WT calendar and those are the important questions. Knowing if he starts an Italian .Pro before Lombardia is not quite as interesting as whether he will contest the big one.



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Vuelta a Espana

@Eliza vuelta is very high here, he said 99% he's not going. But I think he should go, just drop the Olympics road race. It's harder to win than Vuelta for him at this point (considering Jonas is not going) and between winning the three grand tours in one year and two grand tours and Olympics, there is no comparison

bought Ṁ500 Answer #888db044d5f9 NO

@Eliza Resolves NO

They really should let us set expiration dates for individual answers in these questions.

It all goes back to James originally implementing these as a huge hack instead of making each one its own full market pool!

bought Ṁ90 Answer #46ad68b41eba NO

@Eliza this one happened back in June, he didn't participate, resolving NO

Thank you!

Grand Prix Cycliste de Québec

Sorry! I duplicated this one by mistake

UAE Tour
bought Ṁ500 UAE Tour NO

This one can resolve NO now

@egroj This is gonna get old really fast isn't it.

You can resolve these ones if you find them 😂

I've hoped someone would adjust Fleche Wallonne, LBL an AGR :(

@Lion If I knew more I would but I don't know anything. I just want everyone else to tell me the answers 🤣

@Eliza I think these should be way below 25%, especially AGR and Fleche, but I won't buy these down further.

@Lion If he had never won LBL I would think it more likely he tries to go anyway, but it feels like this season he's going to go all-in on the TDF!

@Eliza It's only 2 weeks before the Giro right? Seems like he should just skip it to make sure he's ready for the Giro optimally.

@Eliza LBL 2 weeks, AGR 3 weeks, but why would he skip the best races of the season?

@Eliza and he doesn't need to be at 100% for the Giro and just skip the Tour

I was looking for the question for Jonas, couldn't find it, @Eliza did you make one for him too?

@egroj I didn't think it would be particularly interesting because he normally runs an extremely barebones program featuring only a small selection of stage races, no one day races, and barely anything surprising.

If you think it has a good chance of being worth forecasting, we should make one, but that is the reason I did not make one when I made these others for high profile riders.

@Eliza I see, makes sense, it is always exciting to see if the big favorites are going to match on an earlier race, sounds likely that Jonas, Roglic and Remco will all be in Itzulia. Also it seems like this time is Roglic the one that will race the least before the Tour: https://www.cyclingnews.com/features/tour-de-france-2024-four-contenders-four-different-paths-to-the-big-showdown

Did a bit of cleanup, unless he crashes, his calendar is announced and I am confident it will stay that way until the Tour at least.

The Tour of Slovenia and all Italian races are more significant than these Flanders Kermess races. The UCI categorization doesn't matter at all.