Each listed race that Tadej Pogacar starts in the 2024 season resolves Yes.
Each race that he does not start resolves No.
For stage races, only the first stage matters.
If the listed race does not happen, that answer resolves N/A because I want you to predict if he starts, not if the race goes under.
I've listed a WT-centric list of races that he has either started at in the past or seems to have some chance of starting at some point in his career. We can add more, but I'm not that interested in .1 or .Pro races -- his season should focus on a WT calendar and those are the important questions. Knowing if he starts an Italian .Pro before Lombardia is not quite as interesting as whether he will contest the big one.
Related questions
@Eliza vuelta is very high here, he said 99% he's not going. But I think he should go, just drop the Olympics road race. It's harder to win than Vuelta for him at this point (considering Jonas is not going) and between winning the three grand tours in one year and two grand tours and Olympics, there is no comparison
@Eliza this one happened back in June, he didn't participate, resolving NO
@Lion If I knew more I would but I don't know anything. I just want everyone else to tell me the answers 🤣
@Eliza I think these should be way below 25%, especially AGR and Fleche, but I won't buy these down further.
@Lion If he had never won LBL I would think it more likely he tries to go anyway, but it feels like this season he's going to go all-in on the TDF!
@Eliza It's only 2 weeks before the Giro right? Seems like he should just skip it to make sure he's ready for the Giro optimally.
@egroj I didn't think it would be particularly interesting because he normally runs an extremely barebones program featuring only a small selection of stage races, no one day races, and barely anything surprising.
If you think it has a good chance of being worth forecasting, we should make one, but that is the reason I did not make one when I made these others for high profile riders.
@Eliza I see, makes sense, it is always exciting to see if the big favorites are going to match on an earlier race, sounds likely that Jonas, Roglic and Remco will all be in Itzulia. Also it seems like this time is Roglic the one that will race the least before the Tour: https://www.cyclingnews.com/features/tour-de-france-2024-four-contenders-four-different-paths-to-the-big-showdown