Resolves Yes if the winner of the points classification at the 2025 Tour de France, as awarded at the post-race podium ceremony, is Tadej Pogacar. Resolves No otherwise.
The leader and winner of this classification is normally distinguished with a green jersey. There is a table of points available at the finish of each stage, and there is an intermediate sprint point on most stages where additional points can be earned.
If there is no post-race podium ceremony or the green jersey is not awarded there, resolves based on the first person announced as the points classification winner by the race organization. (Such announcement must be in the form of a press release or social media message or similar -- an automated leaderboard system displaying a winner would not suffice.)
maillot vert TDF 2025 green jersey points classification
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ557 | |
| 2 | Ṁ367 | |
| 3 | Ṁ153 | |
| 4 | Ṁ143 | |
| 5 | Ṁ82 |
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@Eliza 30005000 Yes shares on offer at 40% for anyone who believes in magic!
@Eliza thanks, I wanted to get rid of those NO. If you want more let me know. I think it is almost a toss up a this moment, and that is just because I think Pogi might be sick. If I would know that he recovers by Thursday I would leave the market at least at 90%
@egroj Tomorrow is a high variance day and could swing this a ton. If Milan somehow plucks another zero point day, the odds here will skyrocket regardless of Pogacar. If he picks up the full 70, they'll plummet. I figured I should offload part of my position for a moderate gain now...I still own a lot of Yes.
For anyone else, I made another No order at 50%.
I think the friendship between MvdP and Tadej makes these 2 questions inter-related:
Yes, I know Merlier and Milan exist, but could Tadej gift Green to his pal?
This race is Milan vs MvdP vs Tadej. The latter 2 of those 3...are pals and could work together.
https://manifold.markets/Eliza/will-mathieu-van-der-poel-win-the-g?r=SWFtY3plY2tzeQ
@Iamczecksy MVDP is still just not looking like he cares. I feel like if he started this race with the intent to compete for green he could have done it. Maybe he will change soon.
Pogacar now has a healthy lead but I guess we would expect it to evaporate tomorrow or the next day.
@Eliza I think Pogacar will get plenty of points in the next 2 weeks. I actually think he's the stronger bet than MvdP after sleeping on it (and MvdP still showing he has no intent today). I was hoping for more from him today.
@Iamczecksy gotta weigh Pogacar's finish line points against everyone else's ability to control the break until the IM sprint.
Pogacar is now leading with 97 points. He is also leading the mountains classification
@Eliza THREE jerseys (not counting world champion)! To parrot @RedzoneITG, might we be witnessing GREATNESS?
@DevdaDavid Pogacar is now only 12 points off the lead for the green jersey, I expect he could contend for finish line points on stage 5, 6, 7, possibly 8, and 10, just within this week. There's a fair chance he ends up in the lead for a period of time "without trying" somewhere between stages 10 and 14. And there just aren't that many sprint stages in the later stages of the race for sprinters to come back for more finish line points.
There is still a ton of uncertainty over how UAE/Visma will manage the race, how many breakaways will be given the nod for the stage win, etc.
I don't think Milan is a particularly great candidate for a lot of the IM sprints that come on or after uphill sections, and it really depends how many other riders are close and how much Trek wants to battle for breakaway slots.
13% feels low to me still, so I will buy some more Yes.
@Eliza Indeed, on close inspection it almost looks like they designed this Tour with the intention of making the green jersey more accessible to GC riders, somebody doesn’t like pure sprinters I guess! I have completely changed my mind and agree with you about Pogacar’s chances.
In reading the supporting information to this market it appears that the green jersey is presumed to be awarded to the overall general points classification leader of the Tour de France. However the green jersey is awarded to the sprint points classification leader while the yellow Jersey is awarded to the overall/general classification points leader. Then again maybe I’m reading it wrong. But Tadej Pogacar winning the green jersey? Not very likely.
@DevdaDavid It’s more likely than normal this year on account of the number of stages with short, steep climbs in the finale that are awarded full “flat stage” points that Pogacar is likely to contest. Still quite unlikely that he wins the green jersey overall. The worlds in which he does likely involve him winning at least one, possibly multiple of Stages 4, 7, and 21, being dominant in the mountain stages again, and starting to contest intermediate sprints in the second and third weeks if the green jersey still looks possible.
@RedzoneITG right, the basic idea is the first week offers a lot of finish points to MVDP and Pogacar so if either of them finds themselves within reach in the 2nd half of the race they might be "obligated" to go for it.