Will the "Will China's Covid Zero policy end in November or December, 2022?" and "China officially abandons Covid Zero in 2022" markets resolve differently?
29
620Ṁ6468
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if "Will China's Covid Zero policy end in November or December, 2022?" resolves YES while the "China officially abandons Covid Zero in 2022" resolves no or vice versa. Also resolves YES if one but not the other resolves N/A or to a probability.

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China
COVID
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Zero Covid
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@Electricitypipe Given both of these have resolved to YES, this market is fully determined to resolve to YES.

predictedNO

@EdwardKmett er.. TO NO!

I'm not going to bet in this but this looks like a huge arbitrage opportunity now... someone should really keep these three markets lined up better.

Also hedging

I think one is asking about official policy and the other is asking about de facto policy, so I do expect them to resolve differently.

I'm betting yes to hedge against the substantial portion of my Mana invested in arbitraging the above 2 markets.

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