Will the "Will China's Covid Zero policy end in November or December, 2022?" and "China officially abandons Covid Zero in 2022" markets resolve differently?
29
153
620
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if "Will China's Covid Zero policy end in November or December, 2022?" resolves YES while the "China officially abandons Covid Zero in 2022" resolves no or vice versa. Also resolves YES if one but not the other resolves N/A or to a probability.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ186
2Ṁ146
3Ṁ93
4Ṁ83
5Ṁ81
Sort by:
bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

@Electricitypipe Given both of these have resolved to YES, this market is fully determined to resolve to YES.

predicted NO

@EdwardKmett er.. TO NO!

I'm not going to bet in this but this looks like a huge arbitrage opportunity now... someone should really keep these three markets lined up better.

bought Ṁ50 of NO
bought Ṁ20 of YES

Also hedging

bought Ṁ50 of YES

I think one is asking about official policy and the other is asking about de facto policy, so I do expect them to resolve differently.

bought Ṁ60 of YES

I'm betting yes to hedge against the substantial portion of my Mana invested in arbitraging the above 2 markets.

More related questions