This question resolves to "NO" if China ends "Covid Zero" in October, or if the policy is still in place at the end of 2022.
Oct 15, 11:27pm: Will China's Covid Zero policy end in November or December, 2022? → Will China's Covid Zero policy end in November or December, 2022?
Close date updated to 2023-01-03 7:59 am
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OK. It's the new year in China already. Time to resolve. Resolving YES; reasons below.
I'll give just two links; as far as I can tell, reporting on this issue is similar across English-language media.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-COVID#China
Various media articles report that China's zero-covid policy has ended; for example, Forbes (above) calls it China's "abrupt.... exit from Zero-Covid." Media articles list specific policies that have been relaxed; they don't say what policies, if any, remain in place. I am left with the impression that life is mostly back to normal. (International travel into China remains restricted, until Jan. 8; that's the only specific example I found of a policy that remains strict.)
I don't know what official case numbers are. Unofficially, it seems that a large fraction of China's population is infected; I believe this with high confidence*. AFAIK the government has not moved to impose any new restrictions in response.
* My best guess is that 10-90% of China's population has been infected with Covid in the last month or two.
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Yes, I see that China announced an official policy change dated Jan. 8, and of course this market doesn't care what happens after the new year. But my best judgement is that Zero Covid is already over.
It looks like it’s officially ending on January 8, not in December, so it seems this will resolve NO.
@Gabrielle Might be relevant for the ''officially" market.
If I understood Boklams comment bellow, only would resolve NO if more restrictions are announced not less. This isn't really confirming anything we didn't already know. Quaruntines for residents already ceased despite cases in the hundreds of millions etc.
@GeorgeVii "-2- China decides to bring back their strict policies. Oops, jk, changed our minds. It happens, occasionally.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hundred_Flowers_Campaign
If they reinstate the policy before the end of December, then for the purposes of this market, Covid Zero did not "end in December". But if they reinstate Jan. 1, it did."
Officially announced it's ending Jan 8th now per Bloomberg and NHC. They've effectively reaffirmed or decided to bring back their strict policies until that date. Ending Jan 8th 2023, not in Nov or Dec.
Further thoughts on how I might resolve. (I don't like those markets where everybody is left to guess "what does the market creator think about ...")
Warnings: This will not resolve until the end of the year (China local time), plus enough time (a few days) for the media to report on anything that may have happened up to the end of the year. Also I have not done any research beyond clicking on links y'all posted in the comments.
I suggested 4 criteria I might consider. Well, here we go:
-1- Facts on the ground: AFAICT China's covid policy is generally much more lax now. Maybe not as lax as Western countries, even in 2021 -- I don't have detailed information -- but significantly relaxed compared to a few months ago.
-2- AFAICT Western media (who AFAICT coined the term "Covid Zero" without definition) pretty much uniformly say that "Covid Zero" is over.
-3- I don't know what China's official case numbers are, but actual case numbers, I assume, are very high, and I haven't heard that China has done any tighten-things-back-up in response. However I suppose this could change.
-4- That other market seems to be in doubt only because of uncertainty about the meaning of the word "officially": does it mean "by official public decree", "by official decision", or is it an empty filler word with no meaning at all? If the other market resolves NO because CCP didn't make an official announcement... I don't care.
So I think YES is likely at this point. Here are two possible doubts.
-1- I look into things and determine that China's current policy is still quite strict, despite media reports. I think this is reasonably likely: the media are good at reporting change, bad at reporting absolute numbers (i.e. the media will tell you about the derivative, not the value). Maybe I will look into things and find China still has a lot of onerous policies, and things have really changed relatively little. Then factor (1) above might end up as a mild NO vote. Given factors (2) (3) (4), I expect this market would still resolve YES.
-2- China decides to bring back their strict policies. Oops, jk, changed our minds. It happens, occasionally.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hundred_Flowers_Campaign
If they reinstate the policy before the end of December, then for the purposes of this market, Covid Zero did not "end in December". But if they reinstate Jan. 1, it did.
@Yev ooo better not. there are millions of cases rn and ccp just chillin, seems pretty clear by now
Liquidating my position in this and a related market to avoid conflict of interest.
How will I resolve this?
A de facto end to the policy is certainly an end to the policy. I care about reality on the ground, not official written policy.
More subtle: What exactly counts as "ending Covid Zero"? The term never had a precise definition; it was just a word for "all those strict things China is doing". Here are some factors I might consider:
-- China's de facto policy: what are the restrictions on the ground? Where is China's policy in comparison to China's policy mid-2022 and most Western countries' policies mid-2022.
-- What Western media say about Covid Zero. AFAICT the term "Covid Zero" was created by Western media (if this is wrong let me know); in the absence of a precise definition, if they say it's over, that probably means it's over.
-- China's case numbers (from official reports) and reactions. "Covid Zero" taken literally implies "zero tolerance" to cases.
-- The resolution of related markets like the following.
https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/china-officially-abandons-covid-zer
@WilliamKiely It might be easiest to defer to INFER's resolution criteria for: "Will China announce an end to its zero Covid policy by 31 December 2022?" https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/1160-will-china-announce-an-end-to-its-zero-covid-policy-by-31-december-2022
@WilliamKiely Taken literally, INFER asks whether China will make an announcement, and my question doesn't. So I'm not going to blindly defer to them.
@Boklam Can you clarify your resolution criteria then? Most of my uncertainty on this question comes down to guessing how you would resolve it given certain outcomes, not the outcomes themselves.
@WilliamKiely I assume you read my comment above, where I laid out some of the factors I will consider. At this point I don't want to commit to a bright-line rule; I'd rather try to answer in the spirit of the question. If you want to ask about a specific outcome, I'd be happy to share my thoughts.
@WilliamKiely Here's a plausible scenario. China does not announce an official change in policy, but the reality on the ground looks like, say, Germany or California in late 2021. Various restrictions remain in place (e.g. mask mandates, proof of testing required for access to certain indoor venues), while the stricter measures (forced relocation to quarantine centers, not letting people exit residential compounds, blocking travel to and from cities) are cancelled. This will mean that even known infected people end up getting out into society (as surely happens in the West all the time: when rules are not enforced, not everybody will obey).
Assume in addition: Western media say "Zero Covid ended"; case numbers in China climb very fast (and China doesn't respond with lockdowns); and related markets resolve to "Zero Covid is over". (I think, given the "plausible scenario" above, these "additional assumptions" are very likely to hold.)
In this scenario I absolutely will resolve to YES.
Again, if you want to ask about some other potential scenario, I'd be happy to dicuss.
"Editor’s update (December 7th): Since this story was published China has eased its covid-19 restrictions. Among the changes, an app-based health pass will no longer be required for entry to most public spaces, and patients with mild symptoms may quarantine at home rather than in designated facilities.": https://www.economist.com/china/2022/12/06/china-is-dismantling-its-zero-covid-machine
On second thought, I think a close date of Jan. 1 or so makes more sense for this market. I'm considering reopening, with a close date of Jan. 1.
If you have placed a bet in this market and you don't want me to reopen, let me know in the next day or two. If there are no objections I'll reopen; if there are, I won't.