1,000
3.00
They’re officially being dropped on January 8, 2023, so I believe this will resolve NO.
@Gabrielle The quarantine measures are just one aspect of the many policies that constituted covid zero, many of which have already been abandoned so my lean would still be that it should resolve yes but I'm not sure
@ManifoldMarkets The resolution criteria for this question are unclear. If China abandons Zero Covid in all but name, how will the question resolve?
@belikewater the “officially” qualifier seems like the only reason any of us would expect a “No” at this point since the official practice is certainly not zero COVID aligned.
I read No as a bet that China will not admit defeat, error, or any recognition that there has been a change of course. Actually practice of policy in the country is irrelevant.
You could argue the only way we will get that is a coup. So maybe this is a bet against end of year coup.
@MP Yes, and I think it’s not in the spirit of MY’s prediction to take ‘officially’ too literally. We should ask him but I’d bet he’d consider the policy abandoned officially enough.
@Nps They are not admiting defeat (and probably not going to), they are just claiming that omicron is less severe than the flu and there is no more need for zero-Covid:
“The most difficult period has passed, and now the pathogenicity of omicron is weakening.”
source: https://www.fx168news.com/article/109499
"Omicron has become so mild, in countries that have achieved widespread vaccination and natural infection rates, it may be less deadly than even the flu."
source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-60762032
Infected people with mild cases are now officially asked to go back to work:
"Asymptomatic and mildly ill cadres and employees of party and government agencies at all levels, enterprises and institutions in the city can go to work normally after taking personal protection according to their physical conditions and job needs."
"In order to conscientiously implement the requirements of the 'Notice on Further Optimizing the Implementation of New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic Prevention and Control Measures' (Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism Zongfa [2022] No. 113) issued by the Comprehensive Group of the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council, the focus of work will shift from infection prevention to health care, prevent severe disease, promote development, and further facilitate the production and life of the masses"
source: https://www.cq.gov.cn/zwgk/zfxxgkml/szfwj/qtgw/202212/t20221218_11400537.html
NPR now describing:
After nearly three years of strict "zero-COVID" policies, in recent days Chinese officials have rolled back most of them following rare protests across the country. Mass testing and mass quarantining are now things of the past.
Just as dramatic as the policy shifts is the shift in messaging coming from the public health experts the Chinese government has relied on since the virus was first identified in China in late 2019, risking their credibility ahead of what is likely to be a giant wave of infections.
Two months ago, Dr. Liang Wannian, the architect of zero-COVID policy, said China "cannot tolerate" a wave of mass infections. This month, he said, "The virus is much more mild now."
If Liang was shifting focus to less stringent protocols, another prominent public health expert, Dr. Zhong Nanshan, a pulmonologist who made his name fighting the SARS outbreak, made outright misleading claims about the virus. He went from touting China's mass quarantine strategy in May to telling a state media outlet that he hasn't seen cases of COVID-19 causing obvious long-term organ damage.
Chongqing and Zhejiang now require public-sector workers who are testing positive to go back to work, with "reasonable precautions."
@Donald Place a limit order. The volatility here is crazy, especially considering there seems to have been no news on this front...
@Boklam Central Economic Work Conference on the 17th. While the conference was specifically about 2023, the marching directions were pretty clear. Prioritize growth, reopen (supposedly in a way that doesn't collapse the health care system). This was also the general media consensus:
"We expect China to continue its significant Covid easing and reopening the economy despite a sharp surge in Covid cases and initial shock to the economy." - Wang Tao, USB Investment Bank Chief China Economist
source: https://www.caixinglobal.com/2022-12-17/wang-tao-key-takeaways-from-chinas-central-economic-work-conference-101979231.html
"The two key differences next year will be living with Covid and supporting real estate developers."
source: https://think.ing.com/snaps/chinas-central-economic-work-conference-tone-to-support-growth
@Boklam Plus, I still interpete the 10 Point plan to constitute an official abandoning of zero Covid, since it states that "Non-high-risk areas shall not restrict the flow of people, and shall not suspend work, production, or business.", which is not unifiable with zero covid policies.
source: http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/gzzcwj/202212/8278e7a7aee34e5bb378f0e0fc94e0f0.shtml
Idk what the officially definition either but this article overall seems to point in the direction of Covid Zero being officially abandoned.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3203694/china-puts-zero-covid-behind-it-new-phase-living-virus