Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official government of any European country currently holding membership in NATO (as of April 7, 2026) formally proposes, introduces legislation, or issues an official executive act to withdraw from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization before August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC.

Formal proposal is defined as an official act by the executive branch or a bill introduced in the national legislature specifically aiming to initiate the Article 13 withdrawal process from the North Atlantic Treaty. Mere political rhetoric, public statements by individual politicians not representing the official government position, or opinion polls will not trigger a "Yes" resolution.

Resolution will be based on reports from reputable international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, AFP) or official government publications from the respective nation. If no such formal action is taken by the deadline, the market resolves to "No."

Background

NATO's North Atlantic Treaty includes Article 13, which stipulates that any party may cease to be a member one year after it has given notice of denunciation to the Government of the United States of America, which serves as the depositary of the treaty.

While some European political parties have historically advocated for withdrawing from the alliance, no member state government has formally initiated the withdrawal process since the alliance's founding in 1949. Changes in government, shifts in geopolitical alignment, or internal political crises are the primary mechanisms through which such a proposal could theoretically arise. Current members can be verified via the official NATO member countries list.