Will the US quit NATO by 2028?
Standard
17
αΉ€1590
2028
10%
if Trump gets elected 2024
4%
if a Republican other than Trump gets elected 2024
3%
no matter what
3%
if Germany meets NATOs 2% spending target in 2024
2%
if Biden gets elected 2024

Trump bawls he wants to quit NATO.

Each answer is a condition. If the condition is not fulfilled, I will resolve that answer NA. All others will resolve YES, when the US quits NATO, or NO, if the US is still a NATO member at the end of 2028.

The "no matter what" answer means unconditionally, so at the very least this one will not resolve NA.

In case the timing becomes relevant: "quit NATO" happens when it is formally done from US side. Announcement is not enough.

Get
αΉ€1,000
and
S1.00
Sort by:

Surely you mean they resolve YES if the US quits NATO, and NO if it doesn't?

@Multicore You are right. Fixed it.

Related Metaculus question: Will the United States withdraw from any of its current mutual defence treaties by 2030? 19% right now.