Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) causes an incident of note during the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan and Cortina d'Ampezzo (February 6-22, 2026). An "incident of note" is defined as a significant event that receives substantial media coverage and involves ICE personnel or operations at the Games. This includes but is not limited to: confrontations with protesters, altercations with attendees or staff, unauthorized enforcement actions, or other disruptive events that generate widespread reporting from major news outlets. The market resolves NO if no such incident occurs during the Games period.

Background

ICE agents will support US security operations at the Winter Olympics in Italy in February, sparking anger from leading Italian politicians who accused ICE of trampling human rights with its brutal crackdown on immigration in the US. The agents will support diplomatic security details but won't run immigration enforcement operations. ICE's Homeland Security Investigations is supporting the US Department of State's Diplomatic Security Service and host nation to vet and mitigate risks from transnational criminal organisations.

Considerations

Thousands of ICE agents have been deployed by President Donald Trump in various US cities to carry out a crackdown on undocumented immigration, and their actions have prompted widespread protests, with recent killings of US citizens in Minneapolis leading to outrage. Milan's mayor described ICE as "a militia that kills," saying it was not welcome in the host city. A US official said the general public likely wouldn't even see or be aware of the HSI agents on the ground during the Olympics, as they would be working behind the scenes, mainly in offices or the U.S. consulate in Milan.

This description was generated by AI.

• Update 2026-01-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): ICE's mere presence at the Olympics does not constitute an "incident of note" - even if their attendance receives media coverage. An actual incident must occur for YES resolution.

• Update 2026-01-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For incidents where someone else initiates a confrontation with ICE: The market resolves YES if there are news stories about the incident and those stories are plurality negative (i.e., the majority of coverage portrays the incident negatively).