What will the outcomes of the CFTC Roundtable on prediction markets announced for around march 22 be?
0
300
Apr 23
50%
CFTC will establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for prediction markets
50%
CFTC will announce clearer guidelines for event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act
50%
CFTC will implement enhanced consumer protection measures for prediction markets
50%
CFTC will adopt policies that promote innovation in prediction markets
50%
CFTC will create specific regulations for sports-related event contracts
50%
CFTC will announce a path for more companies to legally offer prediction market products
50%
CFTC will maintain current regulatory stance with minimal changes
50%
CFTC will impose stricter oversight measures on existing prediction market platforms
50%
CFTC will announce a follow-up roundtable or working group for further discussion
50%
CFTC will publish a formal report on prediction market regulation
50%
CFTC will announce collaboration with other regulatory bodies on prediction markets
50%
CFTC will propose a sandbox program for prediction market innovations

Background

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has announced a roundtable on prediction markets scheduled for around March 22, 2024. Announced in release Number 9046-25 This event aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for prediction markets, addressing the legal uncertainty that has surrounded event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act. The roundtable will bring together various stakeholders to discuss the future of prediction markets, including platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.

The CFTC is seeking to balance innovation with consumer protection, aiming to create clear guidelines that prevent deceptive practices while allowing prediction markets to flourish. This roundtable comes amid ongoing legal cases, such as Kalshi v. CFTC, which could influence the regulatory approach to political and sports event contracts.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the official outcomes and announcements from the CFTC Roundtable on prediction markets. Specific outcomes that could be considered include:

  • Official regulatory frameworks or guidelines published by the CFTC following the roundtable

  • Public statements or press releases from the CFTC detailing conclusions reached during the event

  • New rules or interpretations of existing regulations announced as a direct result of the roundtable

  • Changes to the legal status of specific types of prediction markets (political, sports, etc.)

  • Formal agreements or memorandums of understanding between the CFTC and prediction market platforms

If the roundtable is postponed beyond April 2024, the market will remain open until the event occurs. If the roundtable is canceled entirely, the market will resolve N/A for all options.

Considerations

The outcomes of this roundtable could significantly impact the legal landscape for prediction markets in the United States. The CFTC's approach may be influenced by:

  • The ongoing Kalshi v. CFTC legal case regarding political event contracts

  • Current market practices across both regulated and unregulated prediction platforms

  • Input from various stakeholders including market operators, legal experts, and consumer advocates

  • International regulatory approaches to prediction markets

  • The balance between fostering financial innovation and ensuring consumer protection

  • This is a Low effort post I did not bother to fact check or even read anything.

As this is a developing regulatory situation, traders should be aware that unexpected outcomes or partial implementations of new frameworks are possible.

Fun
Meta-markets
Meta-Forecasting
ACX
Crypto news
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules