Background

The World3 model, developed for the "Limits to Growth" study in 1972, simulates global interactions between population, industrial growth, food production, resource depletion, and pollution. The model's "business as usual" (BAU) scenarios predict an "overshoot and collapse" of the global system by mid-to-late 21st century. A 2023 recalibration of the model, using updated empirical data, continues to suggest a high likelihood of this scenario occurring.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on empirical data's alignment with World3 model predictions, specifically:

• YES if data continues to track with BAU or BAU2 scenarios

• NO if data significantly diverges from these scenarios or aligns more closely with the "stabilized world" scenario

Resolution will be determined by comparing real-world data on:

• Population growth

• Industrial output

• Food production

• Resource depletion rates

• Pollution levels

• Technological advancement rates

Considerations

• The model's predictions are complex and interconnected, making precise probability assessments challenging

• New technological developments or policy changes could significantly alter the trajectory

• The 2023 recalibration suggests the collapse phase could begin sooner than originally predicted

• Historical data from 1972-2023 has shown strong alignment with the BAU scenarios, lending credibility to the model's predictive power

• The "stabilized world" scenario, which avoids collapse, currently shows the least alignment with empirical data