s-risks are outcomes for individuals or populations which might be considerably worse than death.

I currently think s-risks are very unlikely but nonnegligible for humanity (<5%). This question resolves N/A if on 1/1/2030, I believe no world war has occurred.

If I believe we are in the midst of a World War before 2030, I will resolve YES if I come to believe for a consecutive year that any group of people (>1000) are at least 10% more likely to be the target of s-risks than they would in the counterfactual without war. I defer to my future self to decide how I perform that calculation, though I may precommit to specific mechanisms or criteria from the comments. I will resolve NO if I never endorse this this belief for a consecutive year before 2040.