Will there be a company larger than the US Government by 2040?
16
Ṁ1kṀ2962040
20%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves Yes if there is a company on earth that collects more revenue (in US dollars) than the US federal government in a calendar year by 2040.
In 2023, the US federal government’s revenue was 4.44 trillion, and the world’s largest company be revenue, Walmart, did 639 Billion.
Some interesting statistics here:
https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/government-revenue/
https://companiesmarketcap.com/largest-companies-by-revenue/
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
Comment hidden
People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be a public company with at most one human employee before 2030?
20% chance
Will a public USA company be nationalized by EOY 2040? (not a bank)
30% chance
Largest company end of April 2026?
Will there be a billion-dollar company with only one person by 2040?
35% chance
Will a public USA company be nationalized by EOY 2040? (including banks)
56% chance
Will a large government organization be run as a futarchy before 2030?
15% chance
Will the US government undergo significant, large scale decline by 2050?
85% chance
Which of these companies will be largest in 2030?
What company will have the biggest market cap by the start of 2050?
Value of largest company end of 2035?
45