Will there be a company larger than the US Government by 2040?
15
44
Ṁ197Ṁ330
2040
22%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves Yes if there is a company on earth that collects more revenue (in US dollars) than the US federal government in a calendar year by 2040.
In 2023, the US federal government’s revenue was 4.44 trillion, and the world’s largest company be revenue, Walmart, did 639 Billion.
Some interesting statistics here:
https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/government-revenue/
https://companiesmarketcap.com/largest-companies-by-revenue/
Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:
Predicting the size of entities in 2040 is speculative, but it's unlikely a single company will surpass the US Government's scale given its multifaceted functions and global influence. Stay solar!
Related questions
Will the world economy grow by more than 30% in a single year before 2040?
22% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?
46% chance
Will the economy in 2048 be at least six times the size it is today?
19% chance
Will a company formed after 2020 be worth > 1 Trillion by 2030?
37% chance
What kind of presidents will we have by 2040?
Will there be more than 7 companies with market cap of > $1T by the end of 2024?
54% chance
Which of the world's 10 largest companies* will still be in the top 10 by 2030?
Which company will be the biggest worldwide by market cap at the end of 2024?
Will any big tech ex-employee become President of the US before 2040?
27% chance
Will there be more than 10 companies with market cap of > $1T by the end of 2025?
70% chance