Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if China conducts any military exercise around Taiwan before May 1, 2026. An exercise is defined as organized military activity involving deployment of naval vessels, aircraft, or ground forces in coordinated operations around Taiwan's territorial waters, airspace, or contiguous zone. The resolution will be based on official announcements from China's People's Liberation Army (PLA), Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense, or credible international news reporting from sources such as Reuters, AP, or major international news outlets.

Background

China has stepped up its coast guard presence and military exercises around Taiwan, with seven major military exercises held around Taiwan since August 2022. On December 29 and 30, the PRC military forces carried out a large-scale exercise titled "Justice Mission-2025", which brought together the PLA Navy, Air Force, Rocket Force, and other branches to rehearse a full maritime blockade of Taiwan. The Justice Mission exercises marked the first instance in which Chinese military and coast guard vessels entered Taiwan's contiguous zone in significant numbers.

Considerations

With each successive exercise, China has normalized encircling Taiwan. Beijing is methodically preparing a standardized blockade doctrine, with political events serving merely as convenient scheduling pretexts. Given the frequency and routine nature of these exercises, the probability of at least one occurring before May 1, 2026 is high.