Resolves YES if Donald Trump is arrested before January of 2024
Update: For clarification, the use of the word arrested is the legal term in the jurisdiction in which the event occurs. I'm trying to gather the definitions from each state. If you would like to assist in finding references for each state, that's helpful too.
In most states, being arrested is being held involuntarily in custody. I suspect that once we know which state indictments occur in, we'll have more detail on the process in scope.
We'll likely also have reports in the media.
Additional answer from January:
If he is booked, this will resolve YES. While we may not see media footage of him in handcuffs, being under police custody and being booked will be evidence of arrest. If we get a mugshot, that would also be a confirmation.
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@ThomasHabets Can you provide some evidence about why it’s reasonable to disagree with the resolution? I would love to see a source that he was not in police custody. He has even made statements himself in the last 24 hours about his trip to NYC.
@ThomasHabets The question is this: While he was being arraigned, was he free to leave?
@ForrestTaylor And was he? That's extremely not clear. We know that he did not have a mugshot taken, and was not handcuffed. If he had made some excuse to leave, would they have let him? A normal person being arrested, absolutely not. Trump? Yeah, my bet (literally, on this market, which is my point) is that they would have let him leave.
@ThomasHabets Your responses sound like speculation. Do you have any evidence or sources that say he was not in police custody?
I’m willing to hear what you have to say, but speculation is only fun for theoretical discussion, and doesn’t change how this market should have been resolved. It’s been reported from several sources that he was arrested, and I can only resolve based on evidence and the law.
@Dustin This whole site is "only fun". Exactly what I expected (and dare I say "hoped") to happen happened, yet the way I read the market I disagree. Basically this market titles "arrested", and then the description is a bit all over the place about the semantics of the word "arrested". (cue Clinton's “It depends on what the meaning of the word ‘is’ is.”)
@Mirek grow up.
@ThomasHabets Are you going to tell me every major news outlet calling it his arrest is wrong? Because it’s definitely their job to get that fact straight. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/04/04/trump-arrested-arraigned-takeaways/11594611002/
@ThomasHabets This wording in the market also clearly supports YES resolution:
If he is booked, this will resolve YES. While we may not see media footage of him in handcuffs, being under police custody and being booked will be evidence of arrest. If we get a mugshot, that would also be a confirmation.
He was booked (fingerprinted)
I’ve now seen video evidence as well as multiple written sources confirming that Donald Trump has been arrested and is police custody. The evidence is sufficient for me to resolve YES
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