Donald Trump has been charged with 34 felony counts in his NY court case. How many of them will he be convicted of?

700Ṁ527

resolved Aug 3

100%10%

31-34

72%

0-5

6-10

11-15

0.9%

16-20

21-25

1.4%

26-30

2024 US Presidential Election

Law & Order

Trump indictment(s)

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Shouldn't this question be resolved by now? Didn't it close 2/1?

I think the counts are basically all the same, just a count for each of the payment installments. So it's likely all or none.

I think this market would benefit from seperate answers for "0" and "34" rather than including them in ranges.

@lisamarsh Agreed! Further, the biggest jump is from 0 to 1. If he's convicted of 1 charge, each additional conviction probably won't have much marginal impact or significance.

@akrasiac Shameless plug, I've got a market for the 0 to 1 jump here:

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4% chance

What percentage of Trump’s charges in indictments unsealed in 2023 will result in a conviction by 2030?

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