@Duncan If Putin dies and then later Russia pulls out of Crimea, when will this market resolve: after Putin dies or after Russia pulls out of Crimea?

@Yev This resolves when the first of those two things happens; in your example, when we have confirmation that Putin is dead, the market will resolve.

@Duncan Thanks. I assumed so, but I just wanted to be sure.

It's funny how in English "Will A happen before B?" is different from "Will B happen after A?"

Even Navalny thinks Crimea belongs to Russia so it's very difficult to foresee and situation in which Russia pulls out if Crimea. Maybe they get driven out, but not even the opposition in Russia would give it up willingly.

@BTE Yes, my assumption would be that they would pull out only if lots of Ukrainian troops were involved.

@BTE I did not know that even the opposition considers Crimea part of Russia. This makes me update slightly towards NO, as there is less incentive than I thought to kill Putin.

@Yev There are still lots of incentives to kill Putin if you are the opposition. There is just no incentive to give up Crimea. And it's much more difficult for Ukraine to take back the peninsula than the land they are currently taking.

@BTE I agree, that's a very small effect.

But you seem to be implying that "Not even the opposition in Russia would give it up willingly" is somehow evidence for "Putin will die before Russia pulls out of Crimea" and I'm confused why that is. It moves a lot of probability from "Russia pulls out of Crimea after Putin's death" to "Russia never pulls out of Crimea". But while Putin is alive, the opposition's opinions on Crimea are unlikely to matter.