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TIME has announced Taylor Swift as the Person of the Year https://x.com/time/status/1732379462644220275?s=46

@Joshua you think they might deviate from the shortlist? Or extend it like "Sam Altman and ChatGPT"?

I wouldn't rule it out.

ChatGPT is not on the shortlist: https://manifold.markets/Duncn/will-chatgpt-be-times-2023-person-o

Close competitor... with Sam Altman.

ChatGPT types away
Imparting knowledge each day
But Person of the Year? Nay.

ChatGPT is the AI king,
Who can answer anything.
But Person of the Year? No way.
ChatGPT's not human, okay?

Does AI count as "yes" for this?

@LucasGoldfein56b1 No -- not unless in specifying AI they list ChatGPT specifically by name. For example, "AI" sub-captioned "ChatGPT, Bing, and Omega". Generally this appears on the cover (as in "Volodymyr Zelensky and the Spirit of Ukraine"), so unless there is no caption at all, that's what I'll go by. If there is no caption on the cover, but a clear equivalent in the article, I may count that.

There's at least one strong competitor for this title in the AI space: "The AI"

Sidney

@MartinRandall "any version of ChatGPT" - pretty sure that includes Sydney

@jonsimon It didn't descend from the ChatGPT weights. If the rumors are true that it's tuned from GPT-4 then it doesn't even have a common ancestor.

@MartinRandall Setting aside the lineage question, what do you think the chances are that the writers at Times would appreciate this difference, or feel compelled to convey it to readers even if they did? I think it's overwhelmingly more likely that they would nominate "ChatGPT" which has basically become a household name rather than the codename for an integrated search bot only accessible via waitlist, aka "Sydney"

@jonsimon Fair point, but I think "Sydney" and other non-ChatGPT models claim to be a "person" more often, and we have some time before the 2023 person of the year.

Admittedly this is the logic that let me lose lots of mana betting against Zelensky in March 2022.

Time Magazine has selected a non-human twice before.

• The Computer (Machine of the Year, 1982)

• The Endangered Earth (Planet of the Year, 1988)

Even if we start at 1982 to yield the highest possible base rate, that gives us 2 out of the last 31, or 6.5%

You (2006)

@ForrestTaylor that’s abstract (so is The Spirit of Ukraine) but still human

See also: https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/who-will-be-time-magazine-person-of-560b87305406