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resolved Dec 6
Resolved
NO

TIME

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bought Ṁ15 of NO

arb https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-will-be-time-person-of-the-year

Who will be Time Person of the Year 2023? [Free Response - Fixed Payout]
Thanks for all the great submissions! We've hit the 100-answer limit so no more answers can be added, and in light of this event I've updated the resolution criteria to clarify some edge cases: If the person of the year is a single person, this market resolves to their name. If the POTY is a single person whose name was not submitted, this market resolves to "Other". If the person of the year is two people, this market resolves 50% to each if both have been submitted. If only one of the two was submitted, this market will resolve 100% to that submitted answer. If a concept or group (such as "The Guardians") is the POTY but the exact wording of the concept/group has not been submitted, this market resolves to the single most predictive concept/group submission according to my judgement, if any submissions qualify (Such as "The Journalists" for 'The Guardians"). If no concept/group submissions are sufficiently predictive in my judgement, I will instead look for submitted names of individuals who are part of the concept/group and are highlighted by Time (such as individual journalists on the 2018 covers for "The Guardians"). If no submissions qualify, this market will resolve to "Other" unless the title of POTY is shared with an individual who was submitted, in which case this market resolves to that individual. This market's close date will be adjusted as necessary to close before the person of the year is expected to be announced. [image]Resolution Examples: In 2020 I would have resolved 50% to Joe Biden and 50% to Kamala Harris if they were both submitted, or 100% to Joe Biden if Kamala Harris was not submitted. I would not resolve to "Joe Biden and Kamala Harris" in any scenario, and would only resolve to "Other" if neither was submitted as an option. In 2022 I would have resolved 50% to Zelenskyy and 50% to "The Spirit of Ukraine" if they were both submitted, or 100% to Zelenskyy if "The Spirit of Ukraine" was not submitted. If neither answer was submitted but "The Country of Ukraine" was, I would have resolved this market 100% to "The Country of Ukraine." I would only resolve to "Other" if neither was submitted as an option, and no similar concepts/groups or individuals representative of "The Spirit of Ukraine" were submitted. "Other" always resolves either to 0% or 100%. Please keep this in mind for your wagers. And if this is all too complicated, considering betting in the version of this market where all concepts/groups are consolidated into one answer: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Joshua/who-will-be-time-person-of-the-year-df317552e680)You can also submit additional answers in Who will be the Time Person of the Year 2023 if the main market resolves to "Other"? [Fixed Payout - Free Response] , or in the Reader's Choice or Manifold's Choice versions of the market!
predicted NO
predicted NO

Any AI = yes

bought Ṁ100 of YES

If some specific AI (e.g. ChatGPT) is the person of the year this will be resolved as YES?