🏅 Top traders

I would like to thank Tay Tay for this windfall. Amen.

Resolves to Taylor Swift: https://time.com/6342806/person-of-the-year-2023-taylor-swift/

@itsTomekK how does this resolve if the title is shared between 'Sam Altman and ChatGPT"? Is that 50% Sam, 50% ChatGPT? Or 33% Sam, 33% ChatGPT, 33% "The AI"?

@Joshua Do the Sam Altman fanboys call themselves the Altmen?

@Joshua I guess we'll need to wait for the full announcement, maybe Sam will be on the cover but text will honour all AIs... there might be so many options (last year Zelenskyy (or two years ago?) was also problematic

@itsTomekK since this is a parimutuel market, should you have it close before the announcement so that the smart ones of us backing Bibi (since March!) don't get diluted by late bettors after it's announced?

@AlQuinn Yes, you and @MartinRandall made good point. I update close time to December 1

Maybe close the market soon, since it's DPM? Could be worth betting on if it closes early.

@MartinRandall What is DPM? I don't like closing markets before the resolving event

@itsTomekK If you look at the market type it says "parimutuel", not "fixed". This means that bets made later, eg after the resolving event, can reduce returns to bets made earlier. The only fix for that is to close the market before the resolving event.

New free response markets use a fixed return type and don't have the same problem.

Can you see the chart properly?

Let's go Bibi! 💪

@AlQuinn I guess people stay up all night getting news feeds on Manifold, but here is a cheap place to get exposure to the Israel Hamas thing if things escalate and Bibi manages to take out the trash...

@ShakedKoplewitz Does this include all AIs? If ChatGPT is selected, does that count for this option?

is it possible to buy "not zelenskyy" in some way?

@dominic not yet

@RaphaelAlba @NathanpmYoung this is about next year 2023!

Zelensky was chosen for 2022, so he‘s probably not going to be the choice for 2023. My perception is that he’s been in the news less recently, so I’d expect him to be even less prominent in 2023 unless some major changes happen with the war.

@Gabrielle They never gave it to someone twice in a row

2022 is almost here

https://www.today.com/news/time-2022-person-of-the-year-shortlist-rcna60072

Are things like "The pope" or "The british PM" fair play here if the holder of that title changes in the next year?

@ShakedKoplewitz Good question.

It should be NO - we will resolve to the Person of The Year.

If Pope changes, then market should price up the new one... however the previous might still get it., etc.

btw,

@LachlanMunro @NickelChen please note this is about 2023 POY, not the sooner 2022 one

@redsolaris1

@kolotom99 Oh OK, I did actually misread. Seems very hard to predict then.

@kolotom99 Then he will be person of the year two years in a row.

@LachlanMunro Hopefully throughout the year it will get clearer. Can't wait to see movements in this market in 2023