Will there be at least 10 cases of Polio in the USA in 2022?
88%
chance
Jan 1, 2023
M$1,590 bet
BTE
BTE is betting NO at 49%
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wavedash
wavedash is betting YES at 94%
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MattP
Matt P is betting YES at 50%
@Duncan can you clarify if you're talking about symptomatic (paralytic) cases only, or also including asymptomatic cases?
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Duncan
Duncan is betting NO at 50%
@MattP Identified cases of paralytic poliomyelitis. Asymptomatic cases are included.
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MattP
Matt P is betting YES at 95%
@Duncan gotcha. Positive lab tests only, or would you count a definitive statement by public health officials? (something along the lines of "now that the outbreak has been contained, we estimate that there were approximately 75 asymptomatic cases")
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jorge
@Duncan Paralytic means symptomatic, in fact more than symptomatic. Only about 0.1–0.5% of all cases are paralytic. About 72% of cases are asymptomatic. Will you also include asymptomatic? BTW, generally those cases are not reported, generally only paralytic cases (like the recent one in NY) are reported
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jorge
I mean asymptomatic infections. Those are technically not cases because there's no disease
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MattP
Matt P is betting YES at 26%
The answer to the question is almost certainly already yes. https://www.health.ny.gov/press/releases/2022/2022-08-04_polio_detected_nys.htm
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MattP
Matt P bought M$40 of YES
Seven positive wastewater samples across two different counties at this point.
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Duncan
Duncan is betting NO at 50%
@MattP Travelling salesman? But yes, probably there are multiple cases, and 10 seems likely (but not confirmed!) at this point.
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JoyVoid
joy_void_joy bought M$250 of NO
Expecting it to go like Monkeypox, we won't hear anything about it for a while, and then it'll start going pandemic
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MattP
Matt P bought M$85 of YES
@JoyVoid I hope not, but I suspect so.
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BTE
@MattP @JoyVoid you can’t have a pandemic from a non contagious virus like Polio. Not to mention the vaccine is 100% effective, so less than 8 percent of the population can even catch it at all.
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BTE
BTE is betting NO at 26%
@MattP @JoyVoid So I was partially wrong about polio not being contagious. In fact, the oral vaccine uses a replicating form of the virus and therefore someone who has recently taken the oral vaccine could potentially infect someone else.
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BTE
Some facts about Polio. Nearly 93% of the US is fully inoculated for Polio. It can’t “spread” like most viruses because it is acquired through contaminated food or water. 70% of cases are asymptomatic. That all said, it has been detected in NYC wastewater so it’s likely there are more than just the one case at this point. And it was detected a month before the severe case was contracted.
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MattP
Matt P is betting YES at 33%
@BTE note - asymptomatic cases are still cases.
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jorge
@MattP they are infections, not cases because cases refer to disease
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