Will there be at least 10 cases of Polio in the USA in 2022?
33
103
Ṁ3.9KṀ320
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
A case of Polio was just identified in New York. Will it spread?
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ402 | |
2 | Ṁ383 | |
3 | Ṁ55 | |
4 | Ṁ31 | |
5 | Ṁ6 |
Sort by:
WOW, NY State Health Dept says “hundreds of people” probably infected with Polio. https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/polio-virus-hundreds-of-infections-possible-new-york-health-department/
@BTE I don't think this is super surprising, I would guess you'd probably need a decent number of cases (say, at least 10) for it to be detectable in wastewater.
@Duncan can you clarify if you're talking about symptomatic (paralytic) cases only, or also including asymptomatic cases?
@Duncan gotcha. Positive lab tests only, or would you count a definitive statement by public health officials? (something along the lines of "now that the outbreak has been contained, we estimate that there were approximately 75 asymptomatic cases")
@Duncan Paralytic means symptomatic, in fact more than symptomatic. Only about 0.1–0.5% of all cases are paralytic. About 72% of cases are asymptomatic. Will you also include asymptomatic? BTW, generally those cases are not reported, generally only paralytic cases (like the recent one in NY) are reported
The answer to the question is almost certainly already yes.
https://www.health.ny.gov/press/releases/2022/2022-08-04_polio_detected_nys.htm
@MattP Travelling salesman? But yes, probably there are multiple cases, and 10 seems likely (but not confirmed!) at this point.
Some facts about Polio. Nearly 93% of the US is fully inoculated for Polio. It can’t “spread” like most viruses because it is acquired through contaminated food or water. 70% of cases are asymptomatic.
That all said, it has been detected in NYC wastewater so it’s likely there are more than just the one case at this point. And it was detected a month before the severe case was contracted.
More related questions
Related questions
How many cases of measles will the CDC report in the US in 2024?
Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?
29% chance
Will the UK have a measles outbreak of 10k cases or more before 2028?
38% chance
Will there be at least 10 socialists in US Congress after the 2024 elections?
70% chance
By the start of 2026, will at least 10 people have been permanently cured of HIV?
75% chance
Will there be at least one calendar year with no reported wild polio cases before 2030?
73% chance
Will any wild-type poliovirus (WPV1) cases be reported in 2025?
50% chance
Discourse 2024: Polio eradicated from the Earth?
23% chance
Will a human-created pathogen infect at least 10,000 people by 2030?
31% chance
Will wild polio be reintroduced in the Americas before August 25th, 2029?
11% chance