Will there be at least 10 cases of Polio in the USA in 2022?
resolved Jan 1

A case of Polio was just identified in New York. Will it spread?

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predicted NO

WOW, NY State Health Dept says “hundreds of people” probably infected with Polio. https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/polio-virus-hundreds-of-infections-possible-new-york-health-department/

predicted YES

@BTE I don't think this is super surprising, I would guess you'd probably need a decent number of cases (say, at least 10) for it to be detectable in wastewater.

predicted YES
@Duncan can you clarify if you're talking about symptomatic (paralytic) cases only, or also including asymptomatic cases?
predicted NO
@MattP Identified cases of paralytic poliomyelitis. Asymptomatic cases are included.
predicted YES
@Duncan gotcha. Positive lab tests only, or would you count a definitive statement by public health officials? (something along the lines of "now that the outbreak has been contained, we estimate that there were approximately 75 asymptomatic cases")
predicted NO
@Duncan Paralytic means symptomatic, in fact more than symptomatic. Only about 0.1–0.5% of all cases are paralytic. About 72% of cases are asymptomatic. Will you also include asymptomatic? BTW, generally those cases are not reported, generally only paralytic cases (like the recent one in NY) are reported
predicted NO
I mean asymptomatic infections. Those are technically not cases because there's no disease
predicted YES
The answer to the question is almost certainly already yes. https://www.health.ny.gov/press/releases/2022/2022-08-04_polio_detected_nys.htm
bought Ṁ40 of YES
Seven positive wastewater samples across two different counties at this point.
predicted NO
@MattP Travelling salesman? But yes, probably there are multiple cases, and 10 seems likely (but not confirmed!) at this point.
bought Ṁ250 of NO
Expecting it to go like Monkeypox, we won't hear anything about it for a while, and then it'll start going pandemic
bought Ṁ85 of YES
@JoyVoid I hope not, but I suspect so.
@MattP @JoyVoid you can’t have a pandemic from a non contagious virus like Polio. Not to mention the vaccine is 100% effective, so less than 8 percent of the population can even catch it at all.
predicted NO
@MattP @JoyVoid So I was partially wrong about polio not being contagious. In fact, the oral vaccine uses a replicating form of the virus and therefore someone who has recently taken the oral vaccine could potentially infect someone else.
Some facts about Polio. Nearly 93% of the US is fully inoculated for Polio. It can’t “spread” like most viruses because it is acquired through contaminated food or water. 70% of cases are asymptomatic. That all said, it has been detected in NYC wastewater so it’s likely there are more than just the one case at this point. And it was detected a month before the severe case was contracted.
predicted YES
@BTE note - asymptomatic cases are still cases.
predicted NO
@MattP they are infections, not cases because cases refer to disease