Will there be at least 10 cases of Polio in the USA in 2022?
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A case of Polio was just identified in New York. Will it spread?
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WOW, NY State Health Dept says “hundreds of people” probably infected with Polio. https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/polio-virus-hundreds-of-infections-possible-new-york-health-department/
@BTE I don't think this is super surprising, I would guess you'd probably need a decent number of cases (say, at least 10) for it to be detectable in wastewater.
@Duncan can you clarify if you're talking about symptomatic (paralytic) cases only, or also including asymptomatic cases?
@Duncan gotcha. Positive lab tests only, or would you count a definitive statement by public health officials? (something along the lines of "now that the outbreak has been contained, we estimate that there were approximately 75 asymptomatic cases")
@Duncan Paralytic means symptomatic, in fact more than symptomatic. Only about 0.1–0.5% of all cases are paralytic. About 72% of cases are asymptomatic. Will you also include asymptomatic? BTW, generally those cases are not reported, generally only paralytic cases (like the recent one in NY) are reported
The answer to the question is almost certainly already yes.
https://www.health.ny.gov/press/releases/2022/2022-08-04_polio_detected_nys.htm
@MattP Travelling salesman? But yes, probably there are multiple cases, and 10 seems likely (but not confirmed!) at this point.
Some facts about Polio. Nearly 93% of the US is fully inoculated for Polio. It can’t “spread” like most viruses because it is acquired through contaminated food or water. 70% of cases are asymptomatic.
That all said, it has been detected in NYC wastewater so it’s likely there are more than just the one case at this point. And it was detected a month before the severe case was contracted.
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