What % of US children age 24 months will be vaccinated against polio in 2030?
What % of US children age 24 months will be vaccinated against polio in 2030?
9
1kṀ3572030
16%
Less than 80%
13%
80% to 89.9%
25%
90% to 92.4%
24%
92.5% to 94.9%
11%
95% or higher
10%
No reliable data will be available nationally
According to the CDC, as of the most recent report for 2020-2021, 24 month olds received 3+ polio shots at a rate of 92.5%.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/immunize.htm
Resolves based on most recent, credible data available at the end of 2030.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
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