Will the James Webb Space Telescope send an image by March 1st, 2022?

100Ṁ1843

resolved Feb 13

Resolved

YES

ALL

The James Webb Space Telescope plans to send its first image 33 days after launch. Will it send the first image by March 1st, 2022? Jan 9, 11:22am: #JamesWebb #space

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ29
2		Ṁ14
3		Ṁ11
4		Ṁ10
5		Ṁ8

People are also trading

Will the James Webb Space Telescope still be operational at the beginning of 2038?

79% chance

Will a peer-reviewed paper be published stating that the James Webb Space Telescope detected extraterrestrial life?

7% chance

Will Julianne Dalcanton have more than 2 hours of telescope time on the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) by EOY 2027?

61% chance

Will data from the James Webb Space Telescope increase the Hubble Tension?

17% chance

Will NASA’s Artemis 2 mission be launched successfully before January 1st, 2026?

3% chance

Will a Hubble Servicing mission receive a green light in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)

33% chance

Will a Terrascope (a space telescope that uses a planet's atmosphere as a giant lens) launch and successfully perform observations by the end of 2042?

30% chance

Will SpaceX launch a mission to Hubble before 2026

4% chance

How many months will JWST stay in operation?

215

Will NASA's Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope launch in 2027?

Sort by:

I believe you are correct -- the 33 day activity matches the mission plans and that is what is referred to in the description. Moreover, the 44 day activity looks like it might still fall short of what I was expecting for a YES resolution, even if it happens on time-line, which would push the next benchmark outside the closing date; since this was a market about keeping timeline, not exceeding it, I am now resolving this to YES.

I'm confused now what this market is looking for. @Duncan from your initial comment I thought the day-33 activity would count for resolution. It matches the timeline I see here, for instance https://jwst.arizona.edu/mission which also says "science-quality" images won't be taken until the end of the 3rd month after launch. By the way it did take a somewhat clear photo of itself. See the last photo at https://blogs.nasa.gov/webb/2022/02/11/photons-received-webb-sees-its-first-star-18-times/

I think it's unlikely that NASA won't keep everyone very informed, but I will delay resolving the market if I think that there is relevant information forthcoming; if anyone has strong feelings on this, now is a good time to suggest contingency plans.

@Duncan how would it be resolved if nasa doesn't post any updates on the current phase at any time before march? how would we know the state/phase of JWST mirror alignment at market closure?

Currently they have passed photons through the system, but gotten a series of uncoordinated and unfocused points. I don't believe that that can be called an image. At a minimum, the mirrors will have to be aligned to focus the image into a single point. I believe that the image stacking phase meets this criteria, but I'm happy to hear arguments for other benchmarks.