Background

NASA's Artemis 2 mission will be the first crewed flight of the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and Orion spacecraft, designed to send astronauts around the Moon. The mission was originally scheduled for late 2024, then pushed to September 2025. However, NASA recently announced further delays due to technical challenges, including unexpected erosion on the Orion heat shield discovered during the Artemis 1 mission.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to YES if:

• The Artemis 2 mission successfully launches before January 1st, 2026 (00:00 UTC)

• The launch clears the tower and the mission begins its journey

This market will resolve to NO if:

• The launch occurs on or after January 1st, 2026

• The mission is canceled

• The launch is attempted but fails (e.g., abort during countdown or launch failure)

Considerations

• NASA has historically experienced delays with major missions, particularly with new spacecraft systems

• The current timeline targets a 2026 launch date, making a pre-2026 launch unlikely

• Technical issues, including the heat shield concerns, ground systems readiness, and life support system testing, could cause additional delays

• Weather conditions and technical requirements must be perfect for a crewed mission, which could impact the launch date