Will JWST find Population III stars before 2027? | Manifold

Will JWST find Population III stars before 2027?

Basic

7

Ṁ746

2027

34%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Population III stars constitute the first generation of stars that appeared after the Big Bang (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stellar_population#Population_III_stars). So far none of these stars were found.

Will at least one Population III star be detected by JWST by the end of 2026?

The market will resolve to YES if the detection is published in a peer reviewed journal or if it is published as a preprint and not refuted within the next month.

Disclaimer: I will not bet on the market.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Apparently there have been some studies claiming evidence for Pop 3 stars: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2306.00953.pdf, YouTube video describing the evidence: https://youtu.be/UA-He0aIbJc.

I don't think this by itself resolves this market, since so far this is only an indirect evidence and the market description mentions "at least one star", implying that a separate star should be detected. But I'm open to the discussion.

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Will a new planet be detected in the habitable zone of a nearby star by 2025?

Will the supermassive dark star candidates observed by JWST exhibit spectroscopy consistent with dark stars?

Will there be a crewed mission to Jupiter before 2060?

Will any spacecraft land or otherwise come to be on at least 3 astronomical bodies before 2040?

Will the James Webb Space Telescope still be operational at the beginning of 2038?

Will there be a crewed mission to Jupiter before 2055?

How many months will JWST stay in operation?

Will there be a human colony on or orbiting Jupiter or a Jovian moon before 2100?

Will the first Starships to Mars launch before 2027?

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