Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if a conflict recognized as "World War III" (or a direct military confrontation between at least two major nuclear powers involving sustained lethal force) occurs during Donald Trump's second presidential term (between January 20, 2025, and January 20, 2029, or until his presidency concludes if terminated earlier).
Specifically, this market resolves to YES if either of the following conditions is met before the end of the second Trump administration:
Direct, sustained armed combat between the armed forces of two or more of the following states: the United States, China, Russia, or NATO member states acting in an Article 5 collective defense capacity. Minor proxy engagements, cyber operations, or isolated airspace/maritime skirmishes that do not result in formal declarations of war or sustained direct state-on-state combat do not qualify.
The consensus of major international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, The Associated Press) or a formal declaration/statement by the United Nations Security Council or the U.S. government explicitly characterizing an active global conflict as "World War III".
If no such conflict occurs before the end of Donald Trump's term in office, this market resolves to NO. If Donald Trump leaves office prior to January 20, 2029, the resolution window closes on his final official day as President.
Background
Discussions surrounding the risk of "World War III" frequently focus on flashpoints involving major nuclear-armed powers, notably escalating tensions between NATO and Russia regarding the war in Ukraine, cross-strait tensions between China and Taiwan, and conflict in the Middle East involving Iran and allied regional powers. Throughout his 2024 campaign, Donald Trump frequently argued that global instability had increased the risk of World War III and claimed his diplomatic approach would de-escalate major power rivalries. Because there is no single statutory definition for "World War III," prediction markets evaluating this outcome typically rely on objective thresholds involving direct combat between great powers or broad international consensus.
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