Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2060 (23:59:59 UTC), the United States is classified as a totalitarian dictatorship or an authoritarian regime under recognized academic or institutional governance indices, or meets unambiguous constitutional dissolution criteria:

1. Standard Indices: The United States receives any of the following classifications in their annual reports published prior to or covering any year up to 2059:

   • V-Dem Institute (v-dem.net): Classified as a "Closed Autocracy" in the Regimes of the World (RoW) metric.

   • Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) (eiu.com): Classified as an "Authoritarian regime" in the annual Democracy Index (overall score below 4.00).

   • Freedom House (freedomhouse.org): Classified as "Not Free" with a Total Score and Status reflecting severe authoritarian rule (Aggregate score below 20/100, or explicitly characterized as a dictatorship).

2. Constitutional / De Facto Criteria: Alternatively, this market resolves to YES if either of the following occurs:

   • The U.S. Constitution is formally suspended or abolished, leading to rule by an unelected individual, junta, or single party without legally contested federal elections.

   • Federal presidential and congressional elections are indefinitely canceled, suspended, or superseded by decree, with power retained by an executive or ruling council for a period of at least two consecutive years.

If none of these conditions are met by January 1, 2060, the market resolves to NO.

Note: If any of the listed indices cease publication, the remaining active indices will be used. If all listed indices become defunct, resolution will rely on consensus among major successor governance metrics or the constitutional/de facto criteria above.

Background

• Definitions: Political science broadly distinguishes between democratic backsliding, competitive authoritarianism ("hybrid regimes"), and totalitarian/closed autocratic regimes. Totalitarian regimes typically feature the complete subordination of state institutions, suppression of political opposition, severe limits on basic civil liberties, and an absence of competitive, contested elections.

• Current Baselines:

  • Freedom House rates the U.S. as "Free" (scoring in the low-to-mid 80s out of 100).

  • The EIU Democracy Index classifies the U.S. as a "Flawed Democracy" (scoring around 7.85/10), having downgraded it from "Full Democracy" in 2016.

  • V-Dem tracks the U.S. as an "Electoral Democracy."