Resolution criteria

• This market resolves to YES if, before January 1, 2031 (00:00 UTC), the Russian Federation launches a military invasion or initiates an armed conflict / state of war in every continent.

• Under standard geographical definitions, the seven continents are Asia, Africa, Europe, North America, South America, Australia/Oceania, and Antarctica. Unless the market creator explicitly edits the criteria to specify inhabited continents only, all recognized continents must be targeted by Russian state armed forces for this market to resolve YES.

• For the purpose of this market, an "invasion" or "starting a war" requires direct, official Russian military operations (land, air, or sea force deployments or declared state-level offensives) against targets within that continent. Indirect proxy involvement, mercenary/PMC deployments, or covert operations do not qualify unless recognized as official Russian military aggression by major international news sources.

• Resolution will be verified using consensus reporting from major international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC) or official statements from the United Nations Security Council.

• If Russia has not invaded or initiated war on every continent by January 1, 2031, the market resolves to NO.

Background

Russia is geographically situated across Europe and Asia. In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, marking a major ongoing war in Europe. While Russian state-backed private military companies and military advisors have operated in parts of Africa, Russia has not conducted direct conventional military invasions across North America, South America, Australia/Oceania, or Antarctica.