Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, before January 1, 2031, Russia establishes single global geopolitical dominance or unipolar hegemony (e.g., exercising direct political control over a majority of UN member states or achieving undisputed status as the sole governing superpower of the global order).

This market resolves to NO if Russia does not establish global control prior to January 1, 2031.

Because "global control" is a qualitative term, resolution will be determined by widespread consensus from major international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press) and political science reporting. If the criteria remain disputed at the cutoff date, the creator may refine or clarify the resolution using verifiable international relations benchmarks.

Background

Official Russian foreign policy under President Vladimir Putin emphasizes the transition away from U.S. unipolarity toward a "multipolar world order" divided into distinct regional spheres of influence, rather than a single Russian-dominated hegemony. Contemporary geopolitical analysis considers total global control by any single state unlikely due to the balance of power shared among major global players, including the United States, China, the European Union, and regional powers.