Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2050, Russia (including state-sponsored groups, military forces, or government-directed entities) is widely attributed to have successfully executed physical, cyber, or orbital attacks that systematically destroy or disable a critical portion of global technology and AI infrastructure.

For the purpose of this market, "systematic destruction or disabling" is defined as meeting at least one of the following thresholds:

1. Global Internet & Communication Collapse: A coordinated physical or digital campaign (e.g., severing undersea fiber-optic cables or disabling global communication satellite constellations) that results in a sustained loss of global internet connectivity affecting at least 50% of the world's internet-using population for at least 14 consecutive days.

2. AI Infrastructure Eradication: Coordinated attacks targeting physical data centers, supercomputers, or cloud networks that host frontier artificial intelligence, resulting in at least five major global AI developers (e.g., OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, Meta, Anthropic, Amazon) permanently or semi-permanently (for at least 30 consecutive days) losing their ability to host, train, or serve their primary flagship AI models.

Additional Conditions:

• Attribution: The attacks must be publicly attributed to the Russian government, military, or Russian state-sponsored actors by a consensus of at least three G7 governments, NATO, or a formal United Nations report.

• Source of Truth: Resolution will be determined based on official government reports and reputable global news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, Associated Press).

• If no such event meets these criteria before January 1, 2050, this market will resolve to NO.

Background

Geopolitical tensions have increasingly focused on the vulnerability of global digital infrastructure. In September 2026, a joint naval task force involving the US, UK, and Norway intercepted a covert Russian deep-sea operation near Svalbard, where Russian submarines were reportedly testing secret weapons designed to disable undersea fiber-optic cables connecting the world's largest satellite ground station. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz subsequently warned that Russia is actively building a new class of specialized submarines designed to target undersea cables, pipelines, and other critical infrastructure.

Simultaneously, physical military strikes have targeted digital "nerve centers." In late September 2026, Russian strikes in Kyiv damaged several major Ukrainian civilian data centers (including De Novo and BeMobile), which Ukrainian and Western officials identified as an explicit strategy to cripple communications and cloud infrastructure. These events highlight the growing integration of physical and cyber warfare targeting the hardware that underpins the global internet, cloud storage, and AI processing networks.