Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2100, global technological infrastructure permanently ceases to exist or function worldwide.

For the purposes of this market, "global technological infrastructure" is defined as:

• The global internet and international telecommunication backbones (such as undersea fiber-optic cables and satellite communication networks).

• Active, functioning artificial intelligence systems.

This market resolves to NO if, on January 1, 2100, a functional global technological infrastructure (including a global data/communications network and operational AI systems) remains active, even if significantly degraded, heavily regulated, or localized.

Additional Rules:

• Temporary, regional, or short-term global outages do not trigger a YES resolution. The cessation must be complete and permanent (or lasting with no expectation of recovery before 2100).

• Resolution will be determined by consensus reports from major international scientific bodies, telecommunication authorities (such as the International Telecommunication Union), or reputable global news agencies.

• In the event of a total societal collapse where no official reporting bodies or prediction market platforms remain functional to process payouts, the market will theoretically resolve to YES under the assumption of technological extinction, though practical settlement may depend on the platform's underlying oracle or survivor nodes.

Background

Discussions surrounding the "extinction" of global technology and AI generally fall into two categories: existential risk (x-risk) from artificial superintelligence (ASI), and systemic collapse from external shocks (such as Carrington-class solar storms, thermonuclear war, or ecological collapse).

While some AI safety researchers and tech executives warn of potential catastrophic loss-of-control scenarios within the coming decades, skeptics argue that physical and computational constraints make a sudden, AI-driven civilizational collapse highly speculative. This market evaluates the extreme long-term resilience of global computing and telecommunications infrastructure against these existential threats over the course of the 21st century.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.