Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 9999, the human species (Homo sapiens) has become entirely extinct. It resolves to NO if there is at least one living, biological Homo sapiens in existence anywhere in the universe on that date.

• Definition of Homo sapiens: Includes anatomically modern humans and their direct, biologically human descendants. Post-biological digital minds, synthetic AI, or highly genetically divergent, non-interbreedable successor species do not count as Homo sapiens.

• The Paradox Rule: In the event of actual human extinction, there will be no human traders, market creators, or operational servers to resolve this market to YES. This market is resolved under the theoretical assumption that an automated, decentralized, or post-human oracle system is capable of verifying the status of humanity on December 31, 9999. In practice, a YES bet is functionally un-payoutable to a human, while a NO bet can only yield a payout if the market infrastructure survives to the year 10,000.

• Early Resolution: If definitive, universally accepted proof of human extinction occurs at any point prior to December 31, 9999—and the hosting platform remains functional long enough to process the resolution—this market may resolve to YES early.

Background

The year 9999 lies approximately 8,000 years in the future. While some evolutionary biologists and paleontologists, such as Henry Gee, have argued that habitat degradation, declining genetic diversity, and "extinction debt" could lead to the demise of Homo sapiens within the next 10,000 years, others argue that technological acceleration, space colonization, and genetic modification will secure the species' long-term survival.

This market serves as a classic exercise in decision theory and anthropic bias: betting on the extinction of one's own species presents an absolute payout asymmetry, as a winning YES bet cannot be collected by a deceased bettor on a defunct platform.

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