Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2100, at 00:00 UTC, artificial intelligence technologies and related computing infrastructure globally cease to exist, are permanently dismantled, or are entirely abandoned and defunct with no functional systems in operation.

This market resolves to NO if, by January 1, 2100, AI technologies (such as machine learning models, autonomous systems, algorithmic decision-making tools, or their successor computational architectures) remain active, maintained, or deployed in functional infrastructure anywhere in the world.

• Clarifications:

  • Partial bans, severe regulatory suppression, economic collapse affecting subsets of providers, or catastrophic industry contractions do not count for a YES resolution as long as functional AI systems or operational infrastructure continue to exist or run anywhere.

  • Extinction-level events or systemic collapses of modern technological civilization prior to 2100 that permanently eliminate the power grid and digital computing infrastructure would qualify for a YES resolution, assuming reliable record/verification is possible; otherwise, standard market settlement mechanisms apply.

  • In the absence of consensus or surviving infrastructure to verify, this market relies on standard Manifold community consensus or creator resolution based on credible historical records.

Background

Modern artificial intelligence infrastructure encompasses specialized hardware (GPUs, TPUs, ASICs), hyperscale data centers, global fiber networks, and software frameworks that support machine learning and algorithmic automation.

Arguments anticipating a total cessation or collapse of AI infrastructure before 2100 generally point to systemic civilizational risks—such as global catastrophic conflict, complete electrical grid collapse, severe planetary resource exhaustion, or international bans enforced after severe technological crises. Conversely, counterarguments hold that AI has become an indispensable, self-reinforcing layer of global scientific, commercial, and telecommunications infrastructure, making its complete extinction prior to 2100 functionally improbable without a total collapse of technological civilization.