Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2100, artificial intelligence (AI) technology, its supporting physical infrastructure, and active AI systems are verified to have become "extinct."

For the purposes of this market, "extinction" is defined as meeting all of the following conditions globally:

1. No Active Systems: There are no functioning digital artificial intelligence systems (such as machine learning models, neural networks, heuristic decision engines, or autonomous agents) being run, maintained, or operated by any government, corporation, academic institution, or civilian group.

2. No Active Infrastructure: There are no operational datacenters, supercomputers, or hardware facilities (such as those utilizing GPUs, TPUs, or neuromorphic chips) functioning with the primary purpose of training, hosting, or executing AI workloads.

3. No Active Development: There is no active, documented research, development, or programming of artificial intelligence systems.

This market resolves to NO if, on January 1, 2100, at least one functioning AI system remains operational, or if there is active development, deployment, or usage of AI technology anywhere globally.

Edge Cases & Resolution Rules:

• Human Extinction: If humanity becomes extinct before 2100, the resolution will depend on the state of AI:

  • If humans are gone but autonomous AI systems, robotic infrastructure, or self-sustaining AI agents continue to operate, this market resolves to NO.

  • If both humanity and all functioning digital/AI systems cease to exist or operate, this market resolves to YES.

• Global Collapse: If a global catastrophic event occurs that permanently destroys modern semiconductor manufacturing, power grids, and digital computing, this market will resolve to YES once it is clear that no AI systems remain operational.

• Verification: Resolution will be determined by the consensus of major global news publications, scientific journals, historical archives, or credible international bodies. If the outcome is ambiguous or cannot be verified due to a lack of surviving records, the market creator may use their best judgment or rely on a consensus poll of traders to determine if the criteria for AI extinction were met.

Background

The trajectory of artificial intelligence has sparked diverse long-term predictions. While much of the contemporary debate centers around the existential risk AI might pose to humanity, some scholars and futurists contemplate scenarios that could lead to the extinction of AI itself.

Such scenarios include:

• Technological Regression or Collapse: Global crises, systemic infrastructure failures, or resource depletion that permanently dismantle the advanced semiconductor supply chains and energy grids required to train and run AI models.

• Intentional Relinquishment: Comprehensive global prohibitions or physical destruction of AI technologies (akin to a "Butlerian Jihad") driven by safety, ethical, or political imperatives.

• Complete Obsolescence: The replacement of digital AI with entirely different, non-AI computational paradigms that render current machine learning and infrastructure completely obsolete and unmaintained.