Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Dr. Anthony Fauci is formally arrested, booked, or self-surrenders and is processed by federal, state, or local law enforcement in connection with criminal charges at any point before January 1, 2029 (12:00 AM UTC).

It will resolve to NO if no such arrest, booking, or processing occurs by the deadline.

For the purposes of this market, an indictment, criminal referral, subpoena, or congressional contempt citation without a subsequent physical arrest, taking into custody, or formal booking/processing by law enforcement will not suffice for a YES resolution.

The outcome will be verified using reports from reputable national news outlets such as the Associated Press or Reuters.

Background

In 2026, political and legal scrutiny surrounding Dr. Anthony Fauci's tenure as director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) escalated. In July 2026, a Senate committee voted to hold him in contempt of Congress and referred him to the Department of Justice after he invoked the Fifth Amendment 111 times during a hearing regarding the COVID-19 pandemic.

While former President Joe Biden issued a federal pardon covering Fauci's actions from 2014 through January 2025, opponents have contested the pardon's legal validity. Furthermore, state-level authorities—including Florida's attorney general, who opened an investigation in mid-2026—are investigating potential state offenses, which are not covered by federal executive clemency. Additionally, in April 2026, a former senior adviser to Fauci, Dr. David Morens, was indicted on federal charges related to concealing pandemic-era records.